Session prep: what happened overnight, key levels, and other market context.
Price pulled back into the 61,500 demand zone yesterday, tapping it during the NY session and again overnight. The London session rejection at 63,000 is now the tell: lower high setting up the next leg down, or continuation to the upper supply zone. 61,000 is the battleground today, with confluences from Monday's low, the 30-day rolling VWAP, resting bids, and a long liquidation cluster all stacked at the same level. June's FOMC minutes framed AI capex as a persistent demand-side inflation pressure, joining tariffs and Middle East energy disruption as three overlapping shocks against the Fed's mandate.
Bitcoin failed to reclaim 65,000 Monday and broke down after retesting 64,000, testing 62,000 as support now, the first close below the 4-hour EMAs since 58,000 held on July 1st. Overhead the 30-day rolling and local-high anchored VWAPs converge at 67,000 while July's value area low sits at 61,000 and June's at 60,000, framing a tight support zone with the next long-liquidation magnet at 57,500 if it breaks. Strategy sold over $200M of BTC to cover dividend obligations and long-term holder positioning has turned negative, both structural demand flows pulling back into today's FOMC minutes at 2pm ET and CPI due Tuesday next week.
Bitcoin cleaned out both sides yesterday, testing 61,000 and rejecting off 65,000 to close back inside Friday's range. The 4-hour EMAs held as support, keeping room for a squeeze up to 67,000, but the daily value area fell below yesterday's point of control for the first time, an early sign momentum is slowing. Falling open interest and rising CVD mark this bounce off 58,000 as a textbook short squeeze, with FOMC minutes Wednesday the key catalyst this week.
Bitcoin held 58,000 last Tuesday and climbed back, then rejected off 64,000 during the Asia session and rolled over into a lower high. Price fell below the 4-hour EMAs for the first time in July, and the reaction on the retest will tell whether this was a routine pullback or an overextended bounce, with 58,000 the level to watch. Bank of America now flags 7 of 10 market peak indicators as Services PMI hits today and FOMC minutes land Wednesday.
The failed breakdown at 58,000 on Tuesday set up a squeeze that yesterday's NY session pushed through 60,000. London has extended the move, with price now heading for 62,000. Price found acceptance above the 4-hour EMAs and buyers stepped in on the retest, flipping the base case to buying pullbacks as long as higher highs and higher lows keep printing. June jobs underwhelmed, with the labor force participation rate slipping to its lowest since March 2021.
BTC traded between 58,000 and 60,000 yesterday, then briefly wicked below on the overnight session before reversing sharply back to the high end of the local range. The failed breakdown flipped the setup: the sweep below 58,000 liquidated a cluster of longs, and price is now squeezing shorts. Manufacturing PMI prints today, payrolls and unemployment tomorrow, and services PMI Monday.
BTC traded between 59,000 and 61,000 yesterday, squeezing shorts in both the London and NY sessions. The Asia overnight pulled back and price is now consolidating at the local value area low. June's value area low at 60,000 is now capping price; until that level is convincingly reclaimed, continuation down stays the base case. Oil, BTC, and silver are all down over 15% in June, the three macro casualties of the month.
BTC traded a tight weekend range, failing to reclaim 61,000 or break 59,000. Price just swept Friday's high and is now looking to retest the low end of the local range. Sentiment is cracking with price: ETFs hit seven straight outflow days, the average iBit holder is down 40%, and MicroStrategy's enterprise value just fell below its BTC reserve for the first time.
NY session pullbacks on both Wednesday and Thursday took price below 59,000 yesterday, sweeping the key long liquidation level. Support held again on Asia overnight. Price has put in a steady series of lower highs since the June 15th rejection from 67,000, with 58,000 the next long liquidation magnet below. The macro calendar is light coming off the revised Q1 GDP and an in-line core PCE print.
Price rejected from 63,000 yesterday and broke down below 60,000, with support holding for now. The bounce off the 60,000 local bottom has fully round-tripped, with what could be the next lower high of the downtrend that started at the 67,000 rejection. Core PCE and GDP print at 8:30am ET today, two key reads for the inflation and productivity narratives.
Price pushed local range short positioning offside above 63,000 before rejecting on the London session. The squeeze played out but the level held as resistance. Shorts unwound into this morning's spike, clearing overhead positioning, with long liquidations below 62,000 now acting as the downside magnet. All eyes on tomorrow's GDP and core PCE prints.
Monday swept short positioning above 65,000, printed a lower high in the local range, then broke down below 63,000. Price has rejected the upper boundary of the local range and is drifting toward 60,000, which stacks as both the range bottom and June's low. Funding flipped negative this morning with shorts now paying longs to hold position, loading squeeze fuel into Thursday's GDP and core PCE prints.
Weekend tape saw liquidity sweeps in thin order books, with BTC pinballing between a 63,000 floor and a 65,000 ceiling. Price is searching for a floor after failing to reclaim 67,000, with two charitable higher lows in place but no buyers driving higher highs. The structure reads more like a squeeze before the next leg down than a reversal. The calendar is quiet until Thursday's core PCE and GDP prints.
BTC broke down from 64,000 during yesterday's NY session, with price now trading in a tight range capped at 63,000 and the local bottom at 60,000 back in play. The reversal from 60,000 failed to reclaim 67,000, leaving price capped by bearishly stacked 4-hour EMAs. Over $600 million in resting bids stack down to 61,500, with long stops in that band as a magnet for a push lower. July rate-hike odds have climbed to 40% after Warsh dropped forward guidance, and core PCE and GDP land next Thursday.
BTC failed to reclaim 67,000 earlier this week, rejected at 66,000 yesterday, and is now capped at 64,500 as the local range resolves lower. 64,000, which capped price earlier this month, has held as support on two breakdown attempts; the third test of that level is the read going forward. Yesterday's FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish shift, with 9 of 19 officials now penciling in at least one rate increase by year's end, up from zero in March.
BTC rejected at 67,000 twice this week and lost 65,500 support on the London session, breaking down below 65,000 into the FOMC print. The setup is binary: either price bounces off the 4-hour EMAs for continuation higher, or the rejection from 67,000 plays out into the next leg down with a retest of 60,000. All eyes turn to today's FOMC decision and the dot plot for how the committee weighs above-target inflation against a still-resilient labor market.
BTC bounced from 64,000 on Sunday and liquidated shorts with stops above 65,000, pushing into 67,000 on Monday's London session before rejecting. A second attempt at 67,000 yesterday also rejected, with the third attempt or a breakdown from the local range the binary into today. The Fed is expected to hold tomorrow, with the asymmetric tail being a surprise cut combined with the end of the Iran war.
BTC closed Friday at 63,500 and pushed up to 64,500 over the weekend, with that level now respected as the new floor. Price is attempting to reclaim 66,000, with the 67,000 high-volume node as the next test above. All eyes turn to Wednesday's FOMC decision into a tape attempting to break out of June's downtrend.
BTC bounced off 61,000 Wednesday and stalled at 64,000, with the last 24 hours coiling in a tight range between 63,000 support and 64,000 resistance. Multiple failed reclaim attempts at 64,000 with absorption above tilt the setup toward a breakdown rather than continuation higher. PPI printed hot yesterday at 1.1% versus the 0.7% consensus, with the Fed decision next Wednesday into a macro backdrop already leaning hawkish.
BTC found support at 61,000 at the low end of the local range yesterday and is now pushing back toward 64,000, the level that rejected the bounce earlier this week. June has played out the second leg down from May's 82,000 rejection, with price consolidating in a narrow range and $480 million of resting sell orders stacked up to 64,000 as the immediate test. PPI prints today and FOMC lands next Wednesday into a macro backdrop already leaning hawkish.
BTC rejected from 64,000 earlier this week and pulled back to 61,000, where support has held. Today's CPI printed in line with expectations, leaving PPI tomorrow and next Wednesday's Fed decision as the next catalysts into a tape coiled at the lower edge of its range. The binary read is straightforward: a higher low at the 60,000 floor sets up a reversal attempt, while a lower high inside the higher-timeframe downtrend keeps continuation lower as the base case.
BTC revisited Sunday's 64,000 liquidity sweep yesterday and rejected, settling into a narrow $1,000 range with 62,500 as the floor. The full reversal of April's bear market rally remains intact, with 4-hour EMAs bearishly stacked and downtrend continuation the base case until a reclaim with higher highs and higher lows. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday set the macro catalysts into a tape already showing weaker equity breadth and a climbing dollar.
BTC swept the 60,000 local low Friday and bounced into 64,000 over the weekend before coiling around 63,000. The full reversal of April's bear market rally is now confirmed, with 4-hour EMAs bearishly stacked, June's monthly VWAP capping every bounce, and the 200-week moving average overhead at 68,000, the first extended stretch below it since the 2022 bear cycle low. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday set the macro catalysts into a tight range between Q1's value area low at 59,000 and the upper reaction at 66,000.
BTC traded in a tight 62,000 to 65,000 range Thursday before drifting toward the lower end, with the 60,000 Q1 value area low as the next major reference and long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. May non-farm payrolls printed 172,000 versus forecasts of 85,000, with prior months revised higher by a combined 93,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, pointing to a still-resilient labor market into the weekend.
BTC continued lower through Wednesday after rejecting from the 12-period hourly EMA, sweeping all but the lowest year-to-date lows and confirming the next leg of the downtrend from January's 120,000 all-time high. The 60,000 Q1 value area low sits below with long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls and unemployment print at 8:30am ET close out this week's labor market data.
BTC fell 7% yesterday to find a floor at 65,000 after losing 70,000, putting price back below the 200-week moving average at the low end of the local range defined by 67,000. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment Friday round out this week's labor market read alongside yesterday's job openings print at a near two-year high.
BTC broke down through 70,000 in early trading after yesterday's 5% selloff sliced through 73,000, with March's value area low at 67,000 and the 66,000 long liquidation cluster as the next downside references. This week's job openings, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment prints will gauge the labor market following the soft Q1 GDP revision.
BTC broke down through 73,000 during the London session this morning after spending the weekend chopping in a narrow range, with the 71,700 anchored VWAP confluent with April's value area low at 71,500 as the next reference. This week's job openings, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment prints will gauge the labor market following the soft Q1 GDP revision.
BTC has been consolidating near 73,000 since Wednesday's pullback from 76,000, with reversal attempts capped at 73,800 and order flow showing absorption at 72,500. Next week's job openings and non-farm payrolls pair with the soft Q1 GDP revision as the next major catalysts.
BTC swept below 74,000 overnight and found support at 72,800, extending the lower-high lower-low downtrend from the failed reclaims of 82,000. US GDP for the first quarter of 2026 was revised down to a 1.6% annualized rate, missing initial estimates of 2.0% and falling short of economist expectations.
BTC is treating yesterday's failed push to 78,000 as confirmation of the April bear market rally reversal scenario, with 79,000 the reclaim line and April's value area low below 72,000 the downside target. Eyeing tomorrow's PCE and GDP prints for additional headwinds.
BTC is bracketed between 78,000 and 74,000 after last week's failed reclaim of 83,000 and the weekend's market structure break below April 30th support, with Thursday's PCE and GDP prints framing the next inflection.
BTC has been capped at 78,000 with the 50-period H4 EMA also rejecting bounces, and continuation lower stays the base case with $74k as the natural objective ahead of next week's PCE and GDP prints.
BTC rejected at 78,000 multiple times yesterday and is now testing the local range low at 77,000, with multiple targets below along the path toward the $74k liquidation magnet as rates climb on inflation concerns.
BTC has rebounded from Monday's low into Monday's high, with yearly open overhead and a long liquidation magnet at $74k below defining the asymmetric setup heading into a heavy macro week.
Today's session opens with BTC consolidating inside Monday's range after the weekend break from $82k. The value area sits in a tight band between $76.5k and $77.2k. Whether this resolves with a continuation lower or a reclaim of the prior range defines today's tape.