Session prep: what happened overnight, key levels, and other market context.
BTC has advanced from the mid 60s to just under 79,000 in three sessions, each one opening above the prior day's range and holding into the close, and price still has not traded back into the rising EMAs. It tagged the February open at 78,343 for the second time this year and has already slipped back beneath it, the only other visit being the May high that rolled straight over into the June breakdown. Open interest and CVD climbed the whole way up while Coinbase premium and long term holder positioning stayed negative, so the marginal buyer here is leveraged rather than spot, and the driver is a Treasury that has doubled its debt buybacks.
Price squeezed off the 64,000s through New York yesterday and cleared 69,000 in a single impulse, held a narrow overnight shelf under 70,000, then extended to 71,600 on the London push. That ends more than 75 days capped under 67,000 and lifts price clear of three consecutive months of value all built near 64,000, into the yearly VWAP at 71,300 where the weekly and monthly highs also sit. Spot CVD went vertical and open interest expanded alongside it rather than bleeding off, a different signature than covering alone, with the calendar empty until core PCE next Wednesday.
Price tagged 65,000 and was rejected inside the hour, then faded overnight into the low 64,200s before London bought it back into the middle of the range. Monday's hold of the 63,000 demand zone came with real volume behind it, and price has now reclaimed the 30 day rolling VWAP near 64,400, though 65,000 still caps value for both July and August. Spot and perp CVD climbed through the bounce while open interest fell the whole way, leaving reversal risk live into FOMC minutes this afternoon and a quiet macro calendar until core PCE next Wednesday.
Price bounced from support over the weekend and pushed above 64,000 during the New York session, but the overnight retest stalled at 64,500, leaving a tight band where the first boundary to give way sets the direction. The last two weeks have been a round trip, down to 63,000, up above 65,000, and back, with price now pressing into the 30-day VWAP near 64,200 and the upper half of July's value area between the 64,000 point of control and the 65,000 value area high. Open interest has stayed flat while perp CVD spiked, reading as shorts closing rather than fresh buyers, and housing starts missed against a beat in building permits heading into FOMC minutes tomorrow.
Support held at 62,500 through the weekend, but early London saw a sharp rejection from 63,800 before price bounced from the 63,000 demand zone, a level that's now been tested and held twice since last week's failed reclaim of 65,000. The August low is holding as price works back toward the 30-day VWAP and last month's point of control, both just above 64,000, while a failed break of 62,000 by aggressive shorts is starting to look like a squeeze. Equities have recovered from July's fakeout but crypto has stayed flat, with Coinbase premium and long-term holder positioning both negative heading into a data-heavy week.
Price rejected sharply from 64,000 during yesterday's New York session, then lost the 63,000 support and is drifting lower toward 62,500, the level where buyers stepped in two weeks ago to escape the descending channel. Capped by the 30-day VWAP all week, price is now retesting July's value area low on a more vulnerable second visit, with rising open interest and falling perp CVD pointing to fresh shorts not yet confirmed by spot flow. US retail sales posted their first decline in nine months, the first real sign the consumer is cooling.
Price rejected from a second attempt to reclaim 64,500 yesterday, then found support just above 63,000 that held overnight and into today's London session after Monday's breakdown. Price has spent the last 45 days within 5% of the 30-day VWAP, an unusually tight coil beneath a naked point of control at 65,000 that also marks July and August's value area high. A better-than-expected PPI print trimmed the odds of further rate hikes, keeping the macro backdrop constructive.
Price pulled back after failing to reclaim 65,000, with support holding just above 63,000 so far while the structure leans toward continuation lower. The breakout from the descending channel has stalled, capped by the bearish 4-hour moving averages, with price coiled between the 30-day VWAP and the VWAP anchored to the local low. Demand is showing at 63,500 on a second retest, but neither side has taken real initiative yet, and July's inflation eased even as elevated gas prices remain a risk.
Price rejected from 65,000 during yesterday's London session before finding support at 64,000 into New York, and it is now trying to reclaim the hourly EMAs. Balance sits right at 64,000, the point of control of the range back to mid-July, with price retesting the 30-day VWAP from below as seller aggression returns and long liquidations stack lower. Zoom out and the structure has the shape of a bottoming phase, no longer printing lower lows, though the last one stretched over 270 days.
Friday pushed into the supply zone just above 65,000 and Sunday retested it as resistance before rejecting again, leaving price back inside 65,000 retesting support. The breakout from the descending channel holds as price consolidates above it, boxed between the 30-day VWAP at 64,300 and the 83,000-anchored VWAP at 66,400. A sweep of 66,000 would clear overhead sell orders, but flat spot CVD means continuation still needs buyer initiative the tape has not shown yet.
Price is pushing back into the supply zone where sellers last took control on the July 30th rejection, but the structure has shifted: Bitcoin convincingly reclaimed 64,000 and escaped the descending channel off the 67,000 rejection, with the 4-hour EMAs supporting every dip since the reversal from 62,500. It now sits between the 30-day VWAP at 64,000 and the 83,000-anchored VWAP at 66,500, pressing July's value area high at 65,000. This morning's nonfarm payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, softening the odds of further rate hikes.
64,000 held as support yesterday and the squeeze carried price up into 65,000, which capped the New York session and held again on the overnight retest. Price is attempting to break out of the descending channel off the failed 67,000 reclaim, holding above the reclaimed 30-day VWAP so long as 64,000 supports the retest. Buyer initiative stays light with long-term holders distributing, and two key employment prints, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, land tomorrow.
64,500 has capped price despite three attempts to break through since yesterday's New York session, while 64,000 has held as support through the pullbacks. That level is the upper boundary of the descending channel off the 67,000 rejection and lines up with the 30-day VWAP, making it the key pivot where reclaim and reversal sit at roughly equal odds. Flows point to range-bound consolidation until they tip clearly in one direction.
Support held at 62,000 yesterday and New York squeezed shorts with a sweep of 64,000, but that level flipped back to resistance and has capped price through the London session. Still inside the descending channel off the July 21st rejection from 67,000, price is pressing the upper boundary at prior resistance where a reversal would set up a 62,000 retest. A strong Manufacturing PMI print stands out as one of the few macro tailwinds pointing higher.
Bitcoin swept Friday's low over the weekend but support just above 62,000 held, while overhead resistance stayed firm with price failing to reclaim 64,000. Still inside the descending channel off the July 21st rejection from 67,000, price is testing the July 17th swing low at 62,500 and has spent the first three days of August below the 30-day VWAP. It is a heavy data week, opening with Manufacturing PMI today and building to Friday's nonfarm payrolls print.
Bitcoin stayed quiet yesterday with a quick liquidity sweep at 65,000 after the open, then the overnight session squeezed up into supply at 65,200 before reversing sharply, the classic mousetrap. Ten days into a descending channel off the 67,000 rejection, price is now testing the 30-day VWAP that held as support all month, with continuation lining up a retest at 62,000. The Fed held rates Wednesday and yesterday's print showed US GDP growth softening, closing out the month's macro slate.
Bitcoin coiled around 64,000 through the New York session and overnight before the early London session squeezed it back toward 65,000, sweeping yesterday's high. Price is still working a descending channel off last week's rejection at 67,000, pinned between the 30-day VWAP below and the 83,000-anchored VWAP above. Risk assets face broad headwinds as July shapes up as the worst month for momentum since the COVID crash, with the 30-year yield climbing to 5.2% even as the Fed held rates steady.
Buyers defended the 63,000 breakdown attempt yesterday and reversed price back above 64,000 heading into the London session. The structure still reads as a local range-high reversal after this week's failed reclaim of 67,000, with the 30-day VWAP at 63,000 as support and the 83,000-anchored VWAP capping at 67,000. The critical FOMC decision lands today, with FedWatch pricing a 36% chance of a hike against a base case of a hawkish hold.
Price failed to reclaim 66,000 yesterday and lost support at 64,000 heading into the Asia overnight session, tilting the two-month range back toward its floor. Shorts are pressing into the pullback as open interest rises and CVD falls, with long liquidations clustered at 61,800 as the magnet below. FOMC lands tomorrow, the first heavy macro test of the range, with GDP and Core PCE the day after.
Friday's breakdown attempt failed, with price reclaiming 64,000 over the weekend and pushing back above 65,000, now holding as support through the London session. The June 22nd swing high capped the bounce, leaving two paths: a sweep of the June 15th swing high above 67,000, or continuation lower to retest 58,000. FOMC lands Wednesday with GDP and Core PCE the next day, giving the range its first heavy macro test of the month.
The breakdown from 67,000 carried into yesterday as London sliced through 65,000 support, with resting buy orders absorbing the selling and the bounce liquidating late shorts. Price is still holding an ascending channel of higher lows but stays capped by 67,000, with daily value drifting lower and falling CVD and open interest reading as longs closing. FOMC lands next Wednesday as the first scheduled catalyst with the weight to break the range.
Bitcoin leaned heavy over the last 24 hours as long liquidations dominated the tape, and price has now accepted below 66,000 after rejecting from the June 15th swing high just above 67,000. Spot CVD and open interest are both falling while perps fuel the climb, so the move still reads as a positioning rally with the 58,000 local low the base case on continued weakness. FOMC lands next Wednesday against a noisier macro backdrop as Middle East escalation lifts oil.
Bitcoin rejected from 67,000 yesterday and pulled back overnight to retest support at 66,000, with structure turning lower on lower highs and lower lows. This is the second attempt at a two-month range ceiling that lines up with the early-May anchored VWAP, and the push into it reads as a squeeze rather than fresh demand. FOMC lands next Wednesday, with Core PCE and GDP the day after.
Bitcoin defended 63,000 during yesterday's London breakdown attempt and climbed back above 66,000, now pressing into the supply zone and the early-May anchored VWAP near 67,000. Price has reclaimed the June and July value areas, but the rally is futures-led, with flat open interest and spot not confirming. FOMC lands Wednesday as the main event on deck.
Friday absorbed the push below 62,000. Weekend bounce rejected from 65,000 overnight, and the London pullback held 63,000. Price is back inside the weekend's value area, with the two-week consolidation extending until one side yields. FOMC lands next Wednesday as the main event on deck.
Yesterday's breakout attempt at 65,000 rejected. 64,000 is holding as a floor into London so far, but the setup reads as a round-trip of Tuesday's short squeeze in progress. Structure is holding on the bear market relief rally from the 58,000 bounce, framed as pullback rather than reversal. Retail sales print this morning, housing starts tomorrow, and eyes turn to next Wednesday's Fed rate decision.
London and NY squeezed shorts yesterday, with price pushing to 65,000. Overnight coiled tight, and London is retesting that ceiling now. The last few days delivered a change in market structure: reversal from the local range low into a modest breakout setting up from a tight consolidation. Inflation cooled in yesterday's CPI print, PPI landed below forecast this morning, and Warsh told Congress the Fed has no tolerance for high inflation.
Tokyo started a reversal overnight and London squeezed shorts into 64,000. The move flipped Monday's two-sided sweep read: sellers didn't stay in control. Consolidation continues in a tight range capped by 64,000, with the London squeeze wiping roughly two-thirds of yesterday's open interest build. June headline inflation slowed to 3.5%, but the question is whether that's durable as Iran tensions re-escalate and oil climbs.
Asia session swept liquidity above Sunday's range, then dropped to sweep below 63,000. London and NY decide whether sellers stay in control from here. Price is chopping in a narrow range, capped by July's high at 64,700 and floored by the 30-day rolling VWAP at 62,000. Key inflation prints tomorrow and Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony, with the read on any shift in Fed policy stance both in play.
Steady climb since the 61,600 bounce Wednesday. NY yesterday and Asia overnight squeezed shorts, and London threatened a breakdown but is holding session VWAP so far. Price pushed through the underside retest at 63,000 and is now up against the supply zone at 64,000, which is where the setup either extends or gets sold. Open interest is climbing with perp CVD but spot CVD hasn't confirmed, reading as a leveraged short squeeze rather than spot-bid demand.
Price pulled back into the 61,500 demand zone yesterday, tapping it during the NY session and again overnight. The London session rejection at 63,000 is now the tell: lower high setting up the next leg down, or continuation to the upper supply zone. 61,000 is the battleground today, with confluences from Monday's low, the 30-day rolling VWAP, resting bids, and a long liquidation cluster all stacked at the same level. June's FOMC minutes framed AI capex as a persistent demand-side inflation pressure, joining tariffs and Middle East energy disruption as three overlapping shocks against the Fed's mandate.
Bitcoin failed to reclaim 65,000 Monday and broke down after retesting 64,000, testing 62,000 as support now, the first close below the 4-hour EMAs since 58,000 held on July 1st. Overhead the 30-day rolling and local-high anchored VWAPs converge at 67,000 while July's value area low sits at 61,000 and June's at 60,000, framing a tight support zone with the next long-liquidation magnet at 57,500 if it breaks. Strategy sold over $200M of BTC to cover dividend obligations and long-term holder positioning has turned negative, both structural demand flows pulling back into today's FOMC minutes at 2pm ET and CPI due Tuesday next week.
Bitcoin cleaned out both sides yesterday, testing 61,000 and rejecting off 65,000 to close back inside Friday's range. The 4-hour EMAs held as support, keeping room for a squeeze up to 67,000, but the daily value area fell below yesterday's point of control for the first time, an early sign momentum is slowing. Falling open interest and rising CVD mark this bounce off 58,000 as a textbook short squeeze, with FOMC minutes Wednesday the key catalyst this week.
Bitcoin held 58,000 last Tuesday and climbed back, then rejected off 64,000 during the Asia session and rolled over into a lower high. Price fell below the 4-hour EMAs for the first time in July, and the reaction on the retest will tell whether this was a routine pullback or an overextended bounce, with 58,000 the level to watch. Bank of America now flags 7 of 10 market peak indicators as Services PMI hits today and FOMC minutes land Wednesday.
The failed breakdown at 58,000 on Tuesday set up a squeeze that yesterday's NY session pushed through 60,000. London has extended the move, with price now heading for 62,000. Price found acceptance above the 4-hour EMAs and buyers stepped in on the retest, flipping the base case to buying pullbacks as long as higher highs and higher lows keep printing. June jobs underwhelmed, with the labor force participation rate slipping to its lowest since March 2021.
BTC traded between 58,000 and 60,000 yesterday, then briefly wicked below on the overnight session before reversing sharply back to the high end of the local range. The failed breakdown flipped the setup: the sweep below 58,000 liquidated a cluster of longs, and price is now squeezing shorts. Manufacturing PMI prints today, payrolls and unemployment tomorrow, and services PMI Monday.
BTC traded between 59,000 and 61,000 yesterday, squeezing shorts in both the London and NY sessions. The Asia overnight pulled back and price is now consolidating at the local value area low. June's value area low at 60,000 is now capping price; until that level is convincingly reclaimed, continuation down stays the base case. Oil, BTC, and silver are all down over 15% in June, the three macro casualties of the month.
BTC traded a tight weekend range, failing to reclaim 61,000 or break 59,000. Price just swept Friday's high and is now looking to retest the low end of the local range. Sentiment is cracking with price: ETFs hit seven straight outflow days, the average iBit holder is down 40%, and MicroStrategy's enterprise value just fell below its BTC reserve for the first time.
NY session pullbacks on both Wednesday and Thursday took price below 59,000 yesterday, sweeping the key long liquidation level. Support held again on Asia overnight. Price has put in a steady series of lower highs since the June 15th rejection from 67,000, with 58,000 the next long liquidation magnet below. The macro calendar is light coming off the revised Q1 GDP and an in-line core PCE print.
Price rejected from 63,000 yesterday and broke down below 60,000, with support holding for now. The bounce off the 60,000 local bottom has fully round-tripped, with what could be the next lower high of the downtrend that started at the 67,000 rejection. Core PCE and GDP print at 8:30am ET today, two key reads for the inflation and productivity narratives.
Price pushed local range short positioning offside above 63,000 before rejecting on the London session. The squeeze played out but the level held as resistance. Shorts unwound into this morning's spike, clearing overhead positioning, with long liquidations below 62,000 now acting as the downside magnet. All eyes on tomorrow's GDP and core PCE prints.
Monday swept short positioning above 65,000, printed a lower high in the local range, then broke down below 63,000. Price has rejected the upper boundary of the local range and is drifting toward 60,000, which stacks as both the range bottom and June's low. Funding flipped negative this morning with shorts now paying longs to hold position, loading squeeze fuel into Thursday's GDP and core PCE prints.
Weekend tape saw liquidity sweeps in thin order books, with BTC pinballing between a 63,000 floor and a 65,000 ceiling. Price is searching for a floor after failing to reclaim 67,000, with two charitable higher lows in place but no buyers driving higher highs. The structure reads more like a squeeze before the next leg down than a reversal. The calendar is quiet until Thursday's core PCE and GDP prints.
BTC broke down from 64,000 during yesterday's NY session, with price now trading in a tight range capped at 63,000 and the local bottom at 60,000 back in play. The reversal from 60,000 failed to reclaim 67,000, leaving price capped by bearishly stacked 4-hour EMAs. Over $600 million in resting bids stack down to 61,500, with long stops in that band as a magnet for a push lower. July rate-hike odds have climbed to 40% after Warsh dropped forward guidance, and core PCE and GDP land next Thursday.
BTC failed to reclaim 67,000 earlier this week, rejected at 66,000 yesterday, and is now capped at 64,500 as the local range resolves lower. 64,000, which capped price earlier this month, has held as support on two breakdown attempts; the third test of that level is the read going forward. Yesterday's FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish shift, with 9 of 19 officials now penciling in at least one rate increase by year's end, up from zero in March.
BTC rejected at 67,000 twice this week and lost 65,500 support on the London session, breaking down below 65,000 into the FOMC print. The setup is binary: either price bounces off the 4-hour EMAs for continuation higher, or the rejection from 67,000 plays out into the next leg down with a retest of 60,000. All eyes turn to today's FOMC decision and the dot plot for how the committee weighs above-target inflation against a still-resilient labor market.
BTC bounced from 64,000 on Sunday and liquidated shorts with stops above 65,000, pushing into 67,000 on Monday's London session before rejecting. A second attempt at 67,000 yesterday also rejected, with the third attempt or a breakdown from the local range the binary into today. The Fed is expected to hold tomorrow, with the asymmetric tail being a surprise cut combined with the end of the Iran war.
BTC closed Friday at 63,500 and pushed up to 64,500 over the weekend, with that level now respected as the new floor. Price is attempting to reclaim 66,000, with the 67,000 high-volume node as the next test above. All eyes turn to Wednesday's FOMC decision into a tape attempting to break out of June's downtrend.
BTC bounced off 61,000 Wednesday and stalled at 64,000, with the last 24 hours coiling in a tight range between 63,000 support and 64,000 resistance. Multiple failed reclaim attempts at 64,000 with absorption above tilt the setup toward a breakdown rather than continuation higher. PPI printed hot yesterday at 1.1% versus the 0.7% consensus, with the Fed decision next Wednesday into a macro backdrop already leaning hawkish.
BTC found support at 61,000 at the low end of the local range yesterday and is now pushing back toward 64,000, the level that rejected the bounce earlier this week. June has played out the second leg down from May's 82,000 rejection, with price consolidating in a narrow range and $480 million of resting sell orders stacked up to 64,000 as the immediate test. PPI prints today and FOMC lands next Wednesday into a macro backdrop already leaning hawkish.
BTC rejected from 64,000 earlier this week and pulled back to 61,000, where support has held. Today's CPI printed in line with expectations, leaving PPI tomorrow and next Wednesday's Fed decision as the next catalysts into a tape coiled at the lower edge of its range. The binary read is straightforward: a higher low at the 60,000 floor sets up a reversal attempt, while a lower high inside the higher-timeframe downtrend keeps continuation lower as the base case.
BTC revisited Sunday's 64,000 liquidity sweep yesterday and rejected, settling into a narrow $1,000 range with 62,500 as the floor. The full reversal of April's bear market rally remains intact, with 4-hour EMAs bearishly stacked and downtrend continuation the base case until a reclaim with higher highs and higher lows. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday set the macro catalysts into a tape already showing weaker equity breadth and a climbing dollar.
BTC swept the 60,000 local low Friday and bounced into 64,000 over the weekend before coiling around 63,000. The full reversal of April's bear market rally is now confirmed, with 4-hour EMAs bearishly stacked, June's monthly VWAP capping every bounce, and the 200-week moving average overhead at 68,000, the first extended stretch below it since the 2022 bear cycle low. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday set the macro catalysts into a tight range between Q1's value area low at 59,000 and the upper reaction at 66,000.
BTC traded in a tight 62,000 to 65,000 range Thursday before drifting toward the lower end, with the 60,000 Q1 value area low as the next major reference and long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. May non-farm payrolls printed 172,000 versus forecasts of 85,000, with prior months revised higher by a combined 93,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, pointing to a still-resilient labor market into the weekend.
BTC continued lower through Wednesday after rejecting from the 12-period hourly EMA, sweeping all but the lowest year-to-date lows and confirming the next leg of the downtrend from January's 120,000 all-time high. The 60,000 Q1 value area low sits below with long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls and unemployment print at 8:30am ET close out this week's labor market data.
BTC fell 7% yesterday to find a floor at 65,000 after losing 70,000, putting price back below the 200-week moving average at the low end of the local range defined by 67,000. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment Friday round out this week's labor market read alongside yesterday's job openings print at a near two-year high.
BTC broke down through 70,000 in early trading after yesterday's 5% selloff sliced through 73,000, with March's value area low at 67,000 and the 66,000 long liquidation cluster as the next downside references. This week's job openings, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment prints will gauge the labor market following the soft Q1 GDP revision.
BTC broke down through 73,000 during the London session this morning after spending the weekend chopping in a narrow range, with the 71,700 anchored VWAP confluent with April's value area low at 71,500 as the next reference. This week's job openings, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment prints will gauge the labor market following the soft Q1 GDP revision.
BTC has been consolidating near 73,000 since Wednesday's pullback from 76,000, with reversal attempts capped at 73,800 and order flow showing absorption at 72,500. Next week's job openings and non-farm payrolls pair with the soft Q1 GDP revision as the next major catalysts.
BTC swept below 74,000 overnight and found support at 72,800, extending the lower-high lower-low downtrend from the failed reclaims of 82,000. US GDP for the first quarter of 2026 was revised down to a 1.6% annualized rate, missing initial estimates of 2.0% and falling short of economist expectations.
BTC is treating yesterday's failed push to 78,000 as confirmation of the April bear market rally reversal scenario, with 79,000 the reclaim line and April's value area low below 72,000 the downside target. Eyeing tomorrow's PCE and GDP prints for additional headwinds.
BTC is bracketed between 78,000 and 74,000 after last week's failed reclaim of 83,000 and the weekend's market structure break below April 30th support, with Thursday's PCE and GDP prints framing the next inflection.
BTC has been capped at 78,000 with the 50-period H4 EMA also rejecting bounces, and continuation lower stays the base case with $74k as the natural objective ahead of next week's PCE and GDP prints.
BTC rejected at 78,000 multiple times yesterday and is now testing the local range low at 77,000, with multiple targets below along the path toward the $74k liquidation magnet as rates climb on inflation concerns.
BTC has rebounded from Monday's low into Monday's high, with yearly open overhead and a long liquidation magnet at $74k below defining the asymmetric setup heading into a heavy macro week.
Today's session opens with BTC consolidating inside Monday's range after the weekend break from $82k. The value area sits in a tight band between $76.5k and $77.2k. Whether this resolves with a continuation lower or a reclaim of the prior range defines today's tape.