BTC broke down from 64,000 during yesterday's NY session, with price now trading in a tight range capped at 63,000 and the local bottom at 60,000 back in play. The reversal from 60,000 failed to reclaim 67,000, leaving price capped by bearishly stacked 4-hour EMAs. Over $600 million in resting bids stack down to 61,500, with long stops in that band as a magnet for a push lower. July rate-hike odds have climbed to 40% after Warsh dropped forward guidance, and core PCE and GDP land next Thursday.
🔴 June 19, 10:48am ET
BTC broke down from 64,000 during yesterday's NY session. Price has since traded in a tight range capped at 63,000, with the local bottom at 60,000 now back in play.
The reversal from the 60,000 local bottom failed to reclaim 67,000, with price now capped by bearishly stacked 4-hour EMAs. 62,000 is holding as support, which could mark another higher low. The base read is the wider frame: positioning for the next leg down.
Buyers stepped in at 62,000, with a modest short squeeze into the 4-hour EMAs in the first hour of the NY session. Whether the squeeze is enough to flip the trend is the open question. 64,000 is the next supply zone to watch if the move extends.
Price broke down yesterday from June's point of control at 64,000. As long as that level caps any squeeze, continuation toward June's value area low at 60,000 stays the base case.
Over $300 million of resting bids sit down to 62,000, with another $300 million between 62,000 and 61,500. Long stops in this band are a magnet for a push lower. If those longs get pushed offside and the bid wall absorbs, the setup flips toward a bounce.
Dominance has been flat since April's BTC-led rally, with alts gaining share via concentrated outperformance in names like Jito, Venice, Zcash, Hype, and Near. The macro overhang is the test: dollar strength, a climbing 2-year, and the hawkish FOMC shift all weigh against risk.
Coming off the Fed hold and Warsh dropping forward guidance, with the US and Iran signing an MOU to end the war. Odds of a July rate hike have climbed to 40%. Core PCE and GDP land next Thursday as the next macro reads.
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BTC enters Friday in a tight range capped at 63,000 after breaking down from 64,000 during yesterday's NY session. The reversal from the 60,000 local bottom failed to reclaim 67,000, with price now capped by bearishly stacked 4-hour EMAs. 62,000 is holding as support, which could mark another higher low, but the base read is the wider frame: positioning for the next leg down. Buyers stepped in at 62,000 with a modest short squeeze into the 4-hour EMAs in the first hour of the NY session; whether the squeeze is enough to flip the trend is the open question.
Positioning is layered. Over $300 million of resting bids sit down to 62,000, with another $300 million between 62,000 and 61,500. Long stops in this band are a magnet for a push lower. If those longs get pushed offside and the bid wall absorbs, the setup flips toward a bounce. Price broke down yesterday from June's point of control at 64,000; as long as that level caps any squeeze, continuation toward June's value area low at 60,000 stays the base case. Dominance has been flat since April's BTC-led rally, with alts gaining share via concentrated outperformance in names like Jito, Venice, Zcash, Hype, and Near.
The macro overhang is the catalyst. Coming off the Fed hold and Warsh dropping forward guidance, with the US and Iran signing an MOU to end the war; odds of a July rate hike have climbed to 40%. Dollar strength and a climbing 2-year both weigh against risk. Core PCE and GDP land next Thursday as the next major reads. Tactical reads: a reclaim of 64,000 with a follow-through above 64,500 reopens the path back toward 66,000-67,000; a flush through 61,500 confirms continuation lower into June's value area low at 60,000, with 58,000 as the next long-stop cluster below.