BTC found support at 61,000 at the low end of the local range yesterday and is now pushing back toward 64,000, the level that rejected the bounce earlier this week. June has played out the second leg down from May's 82,000 rejection, with price consolidating in a narrow range and $480 million of resting sell orders stacked up to 64,000 as the immediate test. PPI prints today and FOMC lands next Wednesday into a macro backdrop already leaning hawkish.
🟡 June 11, 8:17am ET
Price found support at 61,000 at the low end of the local range yesterday and is now pushing back toward 64,000. That's the same level that rejected the bounce earlier this week, making it the retest the move has to clear.
June has played out the second leg down from May's 82,000 rejection. Price lost 74,000, fell to 60,000, and is now consolidating in a narrow range. The first underside retest of 64,000 rejected; a deeper underside retest of 66,000 is still on the table inside the downtrend continuation scenario.
Price is back inside Monday's range. Overhead, the yearly VWAP and June's high converge at 74,000. The binary: break out of consolidation and make a run for 74,000, or lose 60,000 support and look for a floor below it.
Price is trading in the upper end of June's value area, with multiple single prints overhead. The 64,000 to 65,000 zone is where to watch for a reaction at June's value area high.
Price is heading into a dense supply zone, with $480 million of resting sell orders stacked up to 64,000. Open interest is climbing alongside CVD, with longs adding into the move to push price higher. The supply wall is the immediate test.
The tech sell-off continues. The dollar is climbing, the VIX is elevated, and equity breadth keeps falling. Oil prices remain elevated, stoking inflation pressure and reducing the odds of a dovish Fed at next week's meeting.
PPI prints today, with FOMC next Wednesday. Two macro catalysts into a tape coiled at the upper edge of its local range. The macro backdrop is already leaning hawkish.
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BTC enters Thursday pushing back toward 64,000 after finding support at 61,000 at the low end of the local range yesterday. 64,000 is the same level that rejected the bounce earlier this week, and the same upper edge of the value area where multiple single prints sit overhead. The binary read is structural: break out of consolidation and make a run for the yearly VWAP and June's high at 74,000, or lose 60,000 support and look for a floor below it.
Positioning is set up for the test. $480 million of resting sell orders stack up to 64,000 as the immediate supply wall, while open interest is climbing alongside CVD with longs adding into the move. The setup brackets price between a dense supply zone above and the 60,000 floor below, with 66,000 as the next overhead reaction zone if 64,000 is cleared (a deeper underside retest of former-support-now-resistance inside the downtrend continuation scenario).
The macro backdrop is the headwind. The tech sell-off continues, the dollar is climbing, the VIX is elevated, and equity breadth keeps falling. Oil prices remain elevated, stoking inflation pressure and reducing the odds of a dovish Fed at next Wednesday's meeting. PPI prints today and FOMC lands next Wednesday, both into a tape already leaning hawkish. Tactical reads: a clean break and hold above 64,000 opens the path to 66,000 and then 74,000; a rejection at 64,000 with a flush through 60,000 brings 59,000 into focus, with 55,000 the next major shelf below.