Price rejected from 63,000 yesterday and broke down below 60,000, with support holding for now. The bounce off the 60,000 local bottom has fully round-tripped, with what could be the next lower high of the downtrend that started at the 67,000 rejection. Core PCE and GDP print at 8:30am ET today, two key reads for the inflation and productivity narratives.
🟡 June 25, 7:39am ET
Price rejected from 63,000 yesterday and broke down below 60,000, with support holding for now. The test is whether buyers step in to reverse off the local range low or get overwhelmed for the next leg down.
The bounce off the 60,000 local bottom has fully round-tripped, with price now back at the sweep level. The rally into the 4-hour EMAs has pulled back, with what could be the next lower high of the downtrend that started at the 67,000 rejection.
60,000 is the key zone. The level has held as support three times in this local range, but the last bounce was the least convincing. The base case on the next retest is a breakdown.
Price is back inside yesterday's value area after a quick deviation below the VA low at 60,700. The binary: this level holds and price drifts back up toward June's value area high at 65,000, or it gives way and the breakdown extends.
Yesterday's break below 60,000 swept a key long liquidation level. The bounce to 62,000 squeezed late shorts, but a thick band of resting sell orders at 62,000 is now capping price. The test: can sellers hold here, or does the squeeze extend toward shorts above 66,000? Below, long positioning under 58,000 looks the most vulnerable.
Micron's explosive earnings reignited the AI memory trade. Iran tensions are subsiding with oil pulling back. Crypto sentiment is the outlier: BTC threatening a key-support breakdown while AI and tech bid.
Core PCE and GDP print at 8:30am ET today. Key reads for the inflation and productivity narratives, into a tape already pinned at its range low.
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BTC enters Thursday testing 60,000 for the fourth time after yesterday's rejection at 63,000 and breakdown below 60,000. Support is holding for now, with price back inside yesterday's value area after a quick deviation below the VA low at 60,700. The bounce off the 60,000 local bottom has fully round-tripped, with price now back at the sweep level. The rally into the 4-hour EMAs has pulled back, with what could be the next lower high of the downtrend that started at the 67,000 rejection. 60,000 has held three times in this local range, but the last bounce was the least convincing.
Positioning is set up for the test. Yesterday's break below 60,000 swept a key long liquidation level. The bounce to 62,000 squeezed late shorts, but a thick band of resting sell orders at 62,000 is now capping price. The test: can sellers hold here, or does the squeeze extend toward shorts above 66,000? Below, long positioning under 58,000 looks the most vulnerable. The binary on yesterday's VA: this level holds and price drifts back up toward June's value area high at 65,000, or it gives way and the breakdown extends.
The macro backdrop is the catalyst. Micron's explosive earnings reignited the AI memory trade. Iran tensions are subsiding with oil pulling back. Crypto sentiment is the outlier: BTC threatening a key-support breakdown while AI and tech bid. Core PCE and GDP print at 8:30am ET today. Key reads for the inflation and productivity narratives, into a tape already pinned at its range low. Tactical reads: a hold at 60,000 with a reclaim of 62,000 reopens the path back through June's value area toward 65,000; a flush below 60,000 confirms continuation into the 58,000 long-stop cluster, with 55,000 as the next major shelf below.