BTC closed Friday at 63,500 and pushed up to 64,500 over the weekend, with that level now respected as the new floor. Price is attempting to reclaim 66,000, with the 67,000 high-volume node as the next test above. All eyes turn to Wednesday's FOMC decision into a tape attempting to break out of June's downtrend.
🟡 June 15, 9:33am ET
BTC closed Friday at 63,500 and pushed up to 64,500 over the weekend, with the pullback respecting that level as the new floor. Price is now attempting to reclaim 66,000, with a high-volume node at 67,000 as the next test above.
The last 10 days put in a higher low just above 59,000. Price is now working through the 4-hour 100 EMA and trading between the daily 12 and 25 EMAs, which remain bearishly stacked. A clean reclaim of the daily 25 is what flips structure.
Price is approaching 67,000 from below, a level that acted as support multiple times since February's local bottom. On the higher timeframe, this is a low-volume zone between 64,000 below and 77,000 above. Price tends to travel quickly between those two levels in either direction.
Q1's point of control sits overhead at 68,000. Price is trading in the gap between June's value area high below 65,000 and May's value area low above 76,000. A thin-volume corridor between the two areas, with Q1's point of control as the reference inside it.
Short stops stack up to 70,000, a magnet for a squeeze higher. But spot CVD is flat while perp CVD climbs with open interest, marking this as a leveraged rally rather than a spot bid. Thin bids below set up for a reversal once the liquidation hunt completes.
Oil is falling on Trump's Iran deal. Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire after SpaceX's successful IPO. The print could set off a mega IPO frenzy with OpenAI and Anthropic queued up behind it.
Last week's inflation prints stayed above the Fed's target. All eyes now turn to Wednesday's FOMC decision into a tape attempting to reclaim 67,000 and break out of June's downtrend.
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BTC enters Monday attempting to reclaim 66,000 after closing Friday at 63,500 and pushing up to 64,500 over the weekend, with that level now respected as the new floor. The next test is the 67,000 high-volume node above, a level that acted as support multiple times since February's local bottom. The last 10 days put in a higher low just above 59,000, and price is now working through the 4-hour 100 EMA, but a clean reclaim of the daily 25 EMA is what actually flips structure.
Positioning is set up for a squeeze, but with a catch. Short stops stack up to 70,000 as a magnet for the move higher, and on the higher timeframe this is a low-volume zone between 64,000 below and 77,000 above where price tends to travel quickly in either direction. But spot CVD is flat while perp CVD climbs with open interest, marking this as a leveraged rally rather than a spot bid. Thin bids below set up for a reversal once the liquidation hunt completes.
The macro backdrop is the wildcard. Last week's inflation prints stayed above the Fed's target, and all eyes now turn to Wednesday's FOMC decision. Oil is falling on Trump's Iran deal, Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire after SpaceX's successful IPO, and the print could set off a mega IPO frenzy with OpenAI and Anthropic queued up behind it. Tactical reads: a clean break and hold above 67,000 opens the path to Q1's point of control at 68,000 and the 77,000 reaction above; a rejection at 66,000 or 67,000 with a flush back through 64,000 brings the new floor into focus, and a break of it returns 59,000 as the next major shelf.