The failed breakdown at 58,000 on Tuesday set up a squeeze that yesterday's NY session pushed through 60,000. London has extended the move, with price now heading for 62,000. Price found acceptance above the 4-hour EMAs and buyers stepped in on the retest, flipping the base case to buying pullbacks as long as higher highs and higher lows keep printing. June jobs underwhelmed, with the labor force participation rate slipping to its lowest since March 2021.
🟡 July 2, 10:31am ET
The failed breakdown at 58,000 on Tuesday set up a squeeze that yesterday's NY session pushed through 60,000. London has extended the move, with price now heading for 62,000.
Price found acceptance above the 4-hour EMAs yesterday, pushed through 60,000, and buyers stepped in on the retest. This is now a low-timeframe reversal setup. The base case flips to buying pullbacks as long as higher highs and higher lows keep printing and the 4-hour EMA floor holds.
After a brief deviation below, price is accepted back above the 60,000 local bottom and looks poised to climb toward the upper boundary of the local range. 64,000 and 66,000 are the two key lower-high reclaim levels from the last breakdown, with the yearly VWAP overhead at 72,500.
Price is back inside June's value area and trending toward the point of control at 64,000. The reclaim opens the path back to POC as the first meaningful reaction zone.
Price is squeezing shorts, with 62,400 as the next liquidation cluster overhead. A thick band of resting sell orders sits just above that level, raising the odds of a reversal from the zone. Aggressive longs opened once 60,000 reclaimed, with rising CVD and open interest confirming.
Crypto continues to lag the equity market, which has been strong this year but is now consolidating. The question is where crypto finds a catalyst to close the gap as the macro regime turns less favorable to risk assets.
June jobs underwhelmed, with fewer adds than expected. The labor force participation rate slipped to its lowest since March 2021, which is what pulled the unemployment rate lower rather than actual strength. The print reads softer than the headline.
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BTC enters Thursday with a fresh low-timeframe reversal setup. The failed breakdown at 58,000 on Tuesday set up a squeeze that yesterday's NY session pushed through 60,000, and London has extended the move toward 62,000. Price found acceptance above the 4-hour EMAs, pushed through 60,000, and buyers stepped in on the retest. The base case flips to buying pullbacks as long as higher highs and higher lows keep printing and the 4-hour EMA floor holds. Price is back inside June's value area and trending toward the point of control at 64,000.
Positioning has flipped constructive. Price is squeezing shorts, with 62,400 as the next liquidation cluster overhead. A thick band of resting sell orders sits just above that level, raising the odds of a reversal from the zone. Aggressive longs opened once 60,000 reclaimed, with rising CVD and open interest confirming. After a brief deviation below, price is accepted back above the 60,000 local bottom and looks poised to climb toward the upper boundary of the local range. 64,000 and 66,000 are the two key lower-high reclaim levels from the last breakdown, with the yearly VWAP overhead at 72,500.
The macro backdrop is the softer read. June jobs underwhelmed, with fewer adds than expected. The labor force participation rate slipped to its lowest since March 2021, which is what pulled the unemployment rate lower rather than actual strength. The print reads softer than the headline. Crypto continues to lag the equity market, which has been strong this year but is now consolidating; the question is where crypto finds a catalyst to close the gap as the macro regime turns less favorable to risk assets. Tactical reads: a hold above 60,000 with continuation through 62,400 fuels the short squeeze into 64,000 and June's POC; a rejection at the 62,400 liquidation cluster with a re-break of 60,000 invalidates the LTF reversal and returns 58,000 as the primary support test.