BTC failed to reclaim 67,000 earlier this week, rejected at 66,000 yesterday, and is now capped at 64,500 as the local range resolves lower. 64,000, which capped price earlier this month, has held as support on two breakdown attempts; the third test of that level is the read going forward. Yesterday's FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish shift, with 9 of 19 officials now penciling in at least one rate increase by year's end, up from zero in March.
🔴 June 18, 10:03am ET
After failing to reclaim 67,000 earlier this week, 66,000 became the new ceiling yesterday and rejected. The failed reclaim resolved the local range lower, with price now capped at 64,500. Stair-step lower stays the structure.
Over the last few days, BTC bounced into the 4-hour 50 and 100 EMAs before rejecting. 64,000, which capped price earlier this month, has now held as support on two breakdown attempts. The third test of the level is the read going forward.
Price is interacting with the monthly VWAP as the structure threatens a drift back to the local bottom at 60,000. A reclaim of the VWAP keeps the support test contained; a clean break below opens the path to retest.
Price has fallen below this week's value area. Last week's point of control at 63,500 is holding as support so far. That POC is now the line between consolidation and continuation lower.
A large resting order sits in the book at 64,000. Open interest has been falling since the 67,000 rejection, with late longs closing as price drifts lower. Remaining long positioning unwinds further on continuation down, with a sweep of the local bottom at 60,000 as the main long liquidation magnet.
The FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish shift: 9 of 19 officials now pencil in at least one rate increase by year's end, up from zero in March. The shift is an overhang for risk-asset valuations.
GDP and core PCE land next Thursday. Warsh also signaled the Fed will pull back on forward guidance, meaning future FOMC meetings will price in new information rather than confirm what was already telegraphed. Rate speculators will have to read the data directly.
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BTC enters Thursday capped at 64,500 after failing to reclaim 67,000 earlier this week and rejecting at 66,000 yesterday. Over the last few days, price bounced into the 4-hour 50 and 100 EMAs before rejecting. 64,000, which capped price earlier this month, has now held as support on two breakdown attempts; the third test of that level is the read going forward. Stair-step lower stays the structure unless reclaimed.
Positioning is set up for the breakdown test. A large resting order sits in the book at 64,000. Open interest has been falling since the 67,000 rejection, with late longs closing as price drifts lower. Remaining long positioning unwinds further on continuation down, with a sweep of the local bottom at 60,000 as the main long liquidation magnet. Price is interacting with the monthly VWAP as the structure threatens a drift back to that bottom; a clean break below opens the path to retest.
The macro backdrop is the catalyst. Yesterday's FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish shift: 9 of 19 officials now pencil in at least one rate increase by year's end, up from zero in March. Combined with a resilient labor market and inflation back above 3%, risk-asset valuations face a clear overhang. GDP and core PCE land next Thursday; Warsh also signaled the Fed will pull back on forward guidance, meaning future FOMC meetings will price in new information rather than confirm what was already telegraphed. Tactical reads: a reclaim of the monthly VWAP and 64,500 reopens the path back toward 66,000-67,000; a loss of 63,500 last-week POC support brings June's value area low at 60,000 into focus, with 58,000 the next long-stop cluster below.