BTC bounced from 64,000 on Sunday and liquidated shorts with stops above 65,000, pushing into 67,000 on Monday's London session before rejecting. A second attempt at 67,000 yesterday also rejected, with the third attempt or a breakdown from the local range the binary into today. The Fed is expected to hold tomorrow, with the asymmetric tail being a surprise cut combined with the end of the Iran war.
🔴 June 16, 9:27am ET
BTC bounced from 64,000 on Sunday and liquidated shorts with stops above 65,000, pushing into 67,000 on Monday's London session before rejecting. A second attempt at 67,000 yesterday also rejected. A third reclaim attempt or a breakdown from the local range is the binary into today.
Over the last seven days, BTC climbed into the daily EMA bands after putting in a higher low at 61,000. A reclaim of 68,000 confirms the reversal from 60,000, while rejection here clears the path for another leg down.
The value area low of the local range acted as support during the last pullback before the surge to 80,000. Price is now testing that level from below, looking to see if former support has flipped to resistance.
The first week of June's value area high is capping the bounce from 60,000. A rejection here that drops price back inside June's value area at 65,000 raises the probability of a retest at the June value area low at 60,000.
Short liquidations cluster overhead around 68,000 and funding remains negative, keeping squeeze fuel in place. But after two failed reclaim attempts at 67,000, the move is losing momentum. The third attempt is the test.
Oil fell, bonds rallied, and equities surged on Trump's Iran deal. BTC dominance has climbed during the rally, capping alt performance. The question into the next leg: can alts catch a bid and lead higher, or do they follow BTC if the move down resumes?
Markets are pricing the Fed to hold tomorrow. The asymmetric setup is the tail: an unexpected cut combined with the end of the Iran war would be a major tailwind for risk, low-probability or not.
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BTC enters Tuesday after two rejections at 67,000. Sunday's bounce from 64,000 liquidated shorts with stops above 65,000, pushing into 67,000 on Monday's London session before rejecting. A second attempt at 67,000 yesterday also rejected. A third reclaim attempt or a breakdown from the local range is the binary into today, and a clean reclaim of 68,000 is what actually confirms the reversal from 60,000.
Positioning still has squeeze fuel in place. Short liquidations cluster overhead around 68,000 and funding remains negative. But after two failed reclaim attempts at 67,000, the move is losing momentum, and the value area low of the local higher-timeframe range is now being tested from below to see if former support has flipped to resistance. A rejection here that drops price back inside June's value area at 65,000 raises the probability of a retest at the June value area low at 60,000.
The macro setup is asymmetric. Oil fell, bonds rallied, and equities surged on Trump's Iran deal, with BTC dominance climbing through the rally and capping alt performance. Markets are pricing the Fed to hold tomorrow; the tail scenario is an unexpected cut combined with the end of the Iran war, which would be a major tailwind for risk regardless of probability. Tactical reads: a clean break and hold above 67,000 with a follow-through reclaim of 68,000 opens the path toward the 77,000 single-print zone above; a rejection at 67,000 with a flush back into June's value area brings 65,000, then 60,000 into focus, with the next leg down resuming.