BTC rejected at 78,000 multiple times yesterday and is now testing the local range low at 77,000, with multiple targets below along the path toward the $74k liquidation magnet as rates climb on inflation concerns.
🔴 May 21, 8:33am ET
Price attempted to reclaim 78,000 multiple times yesterday and was rejected each time. We're now testing 77,000 at the low end of the local range.
The setup is binary: hold here and the range stays intact, lose it and the next reference is the prior session low.
Price is searching for support after the pullback from 82,000, and 76,000 has held so far.
A retest of 76,000 looks likely, and that level defines whether the current range holds or breaks down to the next reference below.
Price swept Monday's high yesterday and rotated back inside the range.
That sweep sets up potential continuation lower toward Monday's low, with the yearly VWAP sitting just below as the next reference if it breaks.
May's value area low capped the retest and rejected the move to reclaim the range.
We're now back inside April's value area, increasing the odds of a test of April's value area low.
Resting asks at 78,000 are absorbing every push and capping the local range.
Below 74,000 sits a magnet of long liquidations, with no equivalent cluster overhead to balance it.
FOMC minutes flagged above-target inflation as the primary concern, keeping the door open for further tightening; cuts remain conditional on both inflation falling and the labor market deteriorating.
Nvidia delivered strong earnings but the beat wasn't large enough to drive risk flows.
Meta is laying off 8,000 employees, while upcoming public offerings from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will test the market's appetite for tech risk.
Rates continue climbing as energy prices and inflation concerns intensify.
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The defining question for the New York session is whether buyers can hold 76,000 on the inevitable retest, or whether yesterday's rejection at 78,000 resolves with a break to the $74k liquidation magnet below.
Asia and London ran a quiet downside drift after yesterday's New York rejections. Resting asks at 78,000 have absorbed every push, while the open $74k liquidation magnet below has no equivalent cluster overhead to balance it.
The cleanest tactical read: a clean hold at 76,000 with a reclaim of the local midpoint keeps the range setup intact; a flush through 76,000 invalidates the bounce and opens the path to the $74k liquidation pool, with the yearly VWAP as the next reference below...