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What was the prior day's trading like, and the overnight session?
🔴 June 9, 9:22am ET
BTC revisited Sunday's 64,000 sweep yesterday and rejected. Price has since settled into a narrow $1,000 range with 62,500 as the floor.
Session Summary
BTC revisited Sunday's 64,000 liquidity sweep yesterday and rejected, settling into a narrow $1,000 range with 62,500 as the floor. The full reversal of April's bear market rally remains intact, with 4-hour EMAs bearishly stacked and downtrend continuation the base case until a reclaim with higher highs and higher lows. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday set the macro catalysts into a tape already showing weaker equity breadth and a climbing dollar.
🔴 June 9, 9:22am ET
BTC revisited Sunday's 64,000 sweep yesterday and rejected. Price has since settled into a narrow $1,000 range with 62,500 as the floor.
Nine days into June and price action remains heavy. After losing 74,000, BTC found a floor at 59,000, bounced modestly, and rejected from 64,000. Until the 4-hour 12 and 25 EMAs are convincingly reclaimed, downtrend continuation stays the base case.
Price briefly swept February's low and has been respecting it since. The lower edge of Monday's range is now in play, threatening a retest. Below the local range, 55,000 held as support from July through September of 2024 ahead of the move to 100,000.
Price is trading around the midpoint of last week's value area, above its point of control and value area low. Zoomed out, the tape has been in a downtrend since the 82,000 rejection in May. A reclaim with higher highs and higher lows is what flips structure; until then, continuation lower remains the path.
$250 million of resting buy orders sit down to yesterday's naked point of control at 61,800. Overhead, 65,000 is the liquidity magnet that puts short positioning offside. Price is bracketed between a bid wall below and a squeeze level above.
Sentiment is cautious. BTC has pulled back into the broader value zone, with 45,000 to 55,000 the most probable bear cycle bottom. The dollar and the 2-year have climbed since early May, while equity breadth has fallen from over 65% to under 50% of stocks above the 50-day.
CPI prints tomorrow and PPI lands Thursday. Two inflation reads into a tape coiled at the lower edge of its local range. The dollar and the 2-year are both climbing into the prints.
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BTC enters Tuesday in a narrow $1,000 range with 62,500 as the floor, after yesterday's revisit and rejection of Sunday's 64,000 liquidity sweep. The lower edge of Monday's range is in play, threatening a retest, with 55,000 sitting as the next major shelf below (a level that held from July through September of 2024 ahead of the move to 100,000).
Structure remains bearish: the tape has been in a downtrend since May's 82,000 rejection, 4-hour 12 and 25 EMAs are stacked above price, and continuation lower stays the base case until a reclaim with higher highs and higher lows. $250 million of resting buy orders sit down to yesterday's naked point of control at 61,800, while 65,000 overhead is the liquidity magnet that puts short positioning offside. Price is bracketed between a bid wall below and a squeeze level above.
The week pivots on two inflation reads, CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday, into a backdrop already cautious: equity breadth has fallen from over 65% to under 50% of stocks above the 50-day, while the dollar and the 2-year have climbed since early May. Tactical reads: a hold of 62,500 with a reclaim of 64,000 unlocks the 65,000 liquidity magnet and a potential push toward 75,000; a flush through 62,500 brings yesterday's naked point of control at 61,800 and the 59,000-to-61,000 bid stack into focus, with 55,000 as the next major shelf below.