Bitcoin cleaned out both sides yesterday, testing 61,000 and rejecting off 65,000 to close back inside Friday's range. The 4-hour EMAs held as support, keeping room for a squeeze up to 67,000, but the daily value area fell below yesterday's point of control for the first time, an early sign momentum is slowing. Falling open interest and rising CVD mark this bounce off 58,000 as a textbook short squeeze, with FOMC minutes Wednesday the key catalyst this week.
🔴 July 7, 9:38am ET
Yesterday cleaned out both sides. Price tested 61,000, reversed, then rejected on the way up at 65,000. We're back inside the range established Friday afternoon last week. Positioning got flushed both ways without resolving direction.
The 4-hour EMAs held as support through yesterday's failed breakdown. That keeps the reversal-off-support setup intact and leaves room for a squeeze up into the 67,000 supply zone. Watch whether buyers keep defending the EMAs or if a third test finally cracks them.
Price is boxed between 60,000 support, the 66,000 supply zone, and the yearly VWAP capping overhead at 72,000. Near-term action lives inside the 60-66 box, but the yearly VWAP is the level that defines the bigger trend. A clean break of either edge of the local box is the first tell.
The daily value area has been climbing since Wednesday last week, but today it fell below the prior day's point of control for the first time. That's the first sign momentum is slowing on the upside. The overhead resistance also lines up with June's point of control, reinforcing this as the level to watch.
Falling open interest paired with climbing CVD marks this bounce off 58,000 as a textbook short squeeze. The move is being driven by shorts covering, not fresh longs pressing. If price loses 62,500, the order book thins out down to 60,500 with little in between to absorb.
Risk appetite ramped in May, but June traded sideways and July is starting to show signs of exhaustion. The impulse that carried altcoins higher has been fading for weeks, and the tape is losing thrust.
The tape is quiet today with no major prints on deck. FOMC minutes hit Wednesday, followed by existing home sales Thursday. The minutes carry the most weight for repricing rate expectations, so watch how bonds and the dollar respond.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
BTC enters Tuesday inside the range established Friday afternoon after yesterday's two-sided liquidation event. Price tested 61,000 and reversed, then rejected on the way up at 65,000, flushing positioning both ways without resolving direction. The 4-hour EMAs held as support through the failed breakdown, keeping the reversal-off-support setup intact and leaving room for another squeeze up into the 67,000 supply zone. The near-term action lives inside a 60-66 box, but the yearly VWAP overhead at 72,000 is the level that defines the bigger trend.
The daily value area has been climbing since Wednesday last week, but today it fell below the prior day's point of control for the first time, an early sign momentum is slowing on the upside. That overhead resistance also lines up with June's point of control. Positioning tells a specific story: falling open interest paired with rising CVD marks the bounce off 58,000 as a textbook short squeeze driven by shorts covering, not fresh longs pressing. If price loses 62,500, the order book thins out down to 60,500 with little in between to absorb.
The broader tape is losing thrust. Risk appetite ramped in May but June traded sideways and July is starting to show signs of exhaustion, with the altcoin impulse fading for weeks. Macro is quiet today with no major prints on deck; FOMC minutes hit Wednesday and existing home sales Thursday, with the minutes carrying the most weight for repricing rate expectations. Tactical reads: a defense of the 4-hour EMAs with continuation into 67,000 keeps the squeeze narrative alive; a loss of 62,500 opens the door to a fast slide toward 60,500 and puts the sub-60,000 pocket back in play.