BTC rejected from 64,000 earlier this week and pulled back to 61,000, where support has held. Today's CPI printed in line with expectations, leaving PPI tomorrow and next Wednesday's Fed decision as the next catalysts into a tape coiled at the lower edge of its range. The binary read is straightforward: a higher low at the 60,000 floor sets up a reversal attempt, while a lower high inside the higher-timeframe downtrend keeps continuation lower as the base case.
🔴 June 10, 9:35am ET
BTC rejected from 64,000 earlier this week and pulled back to 61,000, where support has held. The question into the rest of the week: is this a higher low setting up a reversal at the 60,000 floor, or just a lower high inside the higher-timeframe downtrend?
Over the last few days, BTC broke down from 74,000 and found a floor at 60,000. The bounce rejected at 64,000, where former support has flipped to resistance. The setup is for a deeper pullback into what could be the final bottoming phase of this bear cycle.
Price is respecting the 60,000 local bottom. The binary read: late shorts betting on breakdown get squeezed off the floor, or this is the start of the next leg down, with the action rhyming with the end of this January's bear market rally.
Last week's point of control at 60,700 has held as support so far this week. A loss of that level brings last week's value area low at 59,000 into focus as the next reaction zone.
BTC funding has flipped negative, with shorts now paying longs to hold position. $400 million of resting bids provide order book support down to 60,000. If buyers can force the squeeze through 62,500, the next supply cluster isn't until 63,500.
Tech is overextended and fragile. Nasdaq and Mag 7 are down on the month, the VIX is elevated, equity breadth is weak, and the dollar and 2-year keep climbing. BTC is trading like high-beta tech, and continued equity weakness is a headwind even with crypto already feeling beaten down.
Today's CPI printed in line with expectations. While the level remains elevated against the Fed's target, an in-line print should already be reflected in asset prices and reduces the surprise potential into tomorrow's PPI. Attention now turns to next Wednesday's Fed decision.
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BTC enters Wednesday respecting the 60,000 local bottom after rejecting at 64,000 earlier this week and pulling back to 61,000. Last week's point of control at 60,700 is the line that has held so far, with last week's value area low at 59,000 as the next reaction zone on any loss. The binary read is straightforward: late shorts betting on a breakdown get squeezed off the floor, or this is the start of the next leg down, with the action rhyming with the end of this January's bear market rally.
Positioning is set up for a squeeze attempt. BTC funding has flipped negative, with shorts now paying longs to hold position. $400 million of resting bids provide order book support down to 60,000, and if buyers can force the squeeze through 62,500, the next supply cluster isn't until 63,500. The local range is bracketed: a bid wall below and a squeeze level above.
The macro backdrop is the headwind. Today's CPI printed in line with expectations, leaving PPI tomorrow and next Wednesday's Fed decision as the next catalysts. Tech is overextended and fragile, with Nasdaq and Mag 7 down on the month, the VIX elevated, equity breadth weak, and the dollar and 2-year climbing. BTC continues to trade like high-beta tech, and continued equity weakness is a headwind crypto has to absorb even at oversold levels. Tactical reads: a hold of 60,700 with a reclaim of 62,500 unlocks the path to 63,500 and the 65,000 liquidity magnet above; a flush through 60,000 brings 59,000 into focus, with 55,000 the next major shelf below.