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What was the prior day's trading like, and the overnight session?
🔴 June 4, 7:02am ET
Wednesday pushed into the 12-period hourly EMA but rejected and continued the downtrend, sweeping all but the lowest year-to-date lows.
Session Summary
BTC continued lower through Wednesday after rejecting from the 12-period hourly EMA, sweeping all but the lowest year-to-date lows and confirming the next leg of the downtrend from January's 120,000 all-time high. The 60,000 Q1 value area low sits below with long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls and unemployment print at 8:30am ET close out this week's labor market data.
🔴 June 4, 7:02am ET
Wednesday pushed into the 12-period hourly EMA but rejected and continued the downtrend, sweeping all but the lowest year-to-date lows.
On Monday, price fell through the lower end of the composite value area going back to the start of the April bear market rally.
Losing 65,000 suggests this is the next leg lower in the downtrend that started when price rejected from all-time highs above 120,000.
Price is looking for a floor. The local bottom at 60,000 is the next major level.
Long positioning stop losses are accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. Price reaching that zone would trigger forced selling and drive price lower until new buyers step in to stop the bleeding.
Price is falling toward the Q1 value area low at 60,000, with the weekly point of control drifting lower for four consecutive weeks.
A large cluster of long positions was forced to unwind when price lost 62,000. The next major cluster sits below at 58,000.
Net short positioning reset when price rejected from 82,000 but has climbed back to that level as shorts pile in to the breakdown.
Narrative follows price, and price has been dropping.
MicroStrategy has $900 million in cash against nearly $2 billion in annual dividend obligations. As price falls and unrealized losses pile up at digital asset treasury companies, the question is whether this floods the market with new supply, or whether the people running them find the conviction to hold through the final innings of the bear market.
This is a big week for labor market data. Tuesday's job openings printed elevated, and tomorrow at 8:30am ET we get non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
The defining question for the New York session is whether 60,000 holds as the Q1 value area low and absorbs the accumulated long stops stacked between 55,000 and 60,000, or whether forced selling from digital asset treasury companies floods supply through that level and triggers the cascade.
BTC is threatening to sweep the year-to-date low after Wednesday's rejection from the 12-period hourly EMA. The downtrend from January's 120,000 all-time high continues, and losing 65,000 on Monday confirmed the next leg. Net short positioning has piled back to the 82,000 rejection level. MicroStrategy has $900 million in cash against nearly $2 billion in annual dividend obligations, putting DAT solvency in focus as unrealized losses pile up.
The cleanest tactical read: a hold of 60,000 with absorption at the Q1 value area low sets up a potential bounce attempt; a flush through 60,000 with cascading long-stop liquidation between 55,000 and 60,000 confirms the next leg toward sub-50,000 targets, all into tomorrow's 8:30am ET non-farm payrolls and unemployment print...