Price pulled back into the 61,500 demand zone yesterday, tapping it during the NY session and again overnight. The London session rejection at 63,000 is now the tell: lower high setting up the next leg down, or continuation to the upper supply zone. 61,000 is the battleground today, with confluences from Monday's low, the 30-day rolling VWAP, resting bids, and a long liquidation cluster all stacked at the same level. June's FOMC minutes framed AI capex as a persistent demand-side inflation pressure, joining tariffs and Middle East energy disruption as three overlapping shocks against the Fed's mandate.
🔴 July 9, 10:08am ET
Price pulled back into the 61,500 demand zone yesterday, tapping it during the NY session and again overnight. The London session rejection at 63,000 is now the tell: lower high setting up the next leg down, or continuation to the upper supply zone.
Price is rejecting from an underside retest of 63,000. Failing to reclaim that level sets up the next leg down toward support at the low end of the local range. The retest is where the direction resolves.
61,000 is the battleground today. That level sits just below Monday's low and the 30-day rolling VWAP, and lines up with a large cluster of resting bids in the order book and a cluster of long liquidations. Multiple confluences at one level.
Price is still inside last week's value area after two failed breakout attempts. If this week's value area low fails to hold, June's VA low sits just below 60,000 as the next reaction zone.
With price failing to reclaim overhead resistance on multiple attempts and a long liquidation magnet at 61,000 below, shorts are reopening again. The test is whether the resting bid blocks down to 61,000 absorb the supply.
Tensions in Iran are escalating again, and concerns about Strategy selling BTC are working against crypto allocations and depressing price. Long-term holder net positioning is the read to watch as the structural demand tell.
June's FOMC minutes framed AI capex as a persistent demand-side inflation pressure, joining tariffs and Middle East energy disruption as three overlapping shocks against the Fed's mandate. The July decision hinges on next week's CPI and the pace of geopolitical re-escalation.
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BTC enters Thursday testing the 61,500 demand zone after tapping it during yesterday's NY session and again overnight. The London session rejection at 63,000 is now the tell: lower high setting up the next leg down, or continuation to the upper supply zone. Price is rejecting from an underside retest of 63,000; failing to reclaim that level sets up the next leg down toward support at the low end of the local range. Price is still inside last week's value area after two failed breakout attempts.
Positioning is stacked at one level. 61,000 is the battleground today, sitting just below Monday's low and the 30-day rolling VWAP, and lining up with a large cluster of resting bids and a cluster of long liquidations. With price failing to reclaim overhead resistance on multiple attempts and a long liquidation magnet at 61,000 below, shorts are reopening again. The test is whether the resting bid blocks down to 61,000 absorb the supply. If this week's value area low fails to hold, June's VA low sits just below 60,000 as the next reaction zone.
The macro backdrop layers structural demand pressure on the tape. Tensions in Iran are escalating again, and concerns about Strategy selling BTC are working against crypto allocations. Long-term holder net positioning is the read to watch as the structural demand tell. June's FOMC minutes framed AI capex as a persistent demand-side inflation pressure, joining tariffs and Middle East energy disruption as three overlapping shocks against the Fed's mandate. The July decision hinges on next week's CPI and the pace of geopolitical re-escalation. Tactical reads: a hold at 61,000 with a reclaim of 63,000 opens the path back toward the upper supply zone; a break of 61,000 confirms the lower high and sends price toward the 60,000 VA-low reaction zone, with the next major shelf below.