01
What was the prior day's trading like, and the overnight session?
🟡 June 3, 7:38am ET
Price fell 7% yesterday, losing 70,000 before finding a floor at 65,000.
Session Summary
BTC fell 7% yesterday to find a floor at 65,000 after losing 70,000, putting price back below the 200-week moving average at the low end of the local range defined by 67,000. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment Friday round out this week's labor market read alongside yesterday's job openings print at a near two-year high.
🟡 June 3, 7:38am ET
Price fell 7% yesterday, losing 70,000 before finding a floor at 65,000.
Price rejected from 74,000 over the weekend and has fallen 10% since.
We could see a mean-reversion bounce or sideways consolidation to let the 4-hour EMAs catch up to price. Either way, this is a full reversal of April's bear market rally.
On higher timeframes, price could be finding support at the low end of the local range as long as 67,000 holds.
The 200-week moving average was a key level that capped price during the late innings of the 2022 bear market, and price is back below it now.
Above 67,000, price is still inside March's value area.
65,000 is February's value area low.
Buyers stepped in after the sweep of 65,000, evidenced by an uptick in CVD with long liquidations piled up below that level.
60,000 is the next long positioning cluster below. Overhead, price starts pressuring shorts at 68,000, with 74,000 the primary target for a short squeeze.
May was a tough month for Bitcoin, with equities and alts outperforming.
The question now is whether Bitcoin front-ran a broader risk-off move, or whether capital is looking for asymmetry elsewhere on the risk curve.
Job openings printed at their highest level in nearly two years.
Non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate Friday round out this week's read on the labor market.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
The defining question for the New York session is whether buyers holding 65,000 sets up a mean-reversion bounce back through 68,000 shorts pressure toward the 74,000 squeeze target, or whether 65,000 fails and the 60,000 long liquidation cluster pulls price down toward it.
Price has fallen 10% since the 74,000 weekend rejection and is now back below the 200-week moving average. CVD ticked up on the 65,000 sweep with long liquidations piled up below, suggesting buyers stepping in. Above 67,000 keeps price inside March's value area; 65,000 is February's value area low.
The cleanest tactical read: a hold of 65,000 with a reclaim of 67,000 keeps the bounce thesis intact and opens room to 68,000 and 74,000 above; a break and hold below 65,000 confirms the structural drift toward the 60,000 long cluster, all into Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment print...