BTC swept the 60,000 local low Friday and bounced into 64,000 over the weekend before coiling around 63,000. The full reversal of April's bear market rally is now confirmed, with 4-hour EMAs bearishly stacked, June's monthly VWAP capping every bounce, and the 200-week moving average overhead at 68,000, the first extended stretch below it since the 2022 bear cycle low. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday set the macro catalysts into a tight range between Q1's value area low at 59,000 and the upper reaction at 66,000.
🟡 June 8, 9:34am ET
BTC swept the 60,000 local low Friday and bounced back into 64,000 over the weekend, where the move stalled. Price is now coiled in a tight range with 63,000 as the mid-point. A break either way resolves the post-sweep balance.
The last week confirmed the full reversal of April's bear market rally, with the breakdown from 74,000 and sweep into 60,000. 4-hour EMAs are bearishly stacked above price, and continuation lower remains the base case unless reclaimed. 60,000 is the line that has to hold.
Price swept February's local low at 60,000 and the bounce has been capped at June's monthly VWAP. The 200-week moving average sits overhead at 68,000. The last extended stretch below the 200-week was June through December 2022, into the prior bear market low.
Price is back inside last week's value area, with the lower bound at 59,000 and the upper at 66,000. That range overlaps Q1's point of control and value area low. The edges of the range are where the next move resolves.
The late-Sunday bounce closed out short positioning with stops up to 64,000. Over $450 million of resting bids provide support down to 61,000. Max Pain squeezes to 65,000 with continuation to 75,000, which would target shorts opened during the reversal of April's bear market rally.
BTC is 50% below its all-time high and down 24% on the month. Bear pullbacks have grown shallower each cycle, but the possibility that this one has not yet bottomed remains open. The current backdrop is a wave of high-profile IPOs absorbing risk-asset liquidity and rising volatility across tradfi.
Last week's labor data ran hot, with NFP topping expectations. The week ahead brings the next inflation reads, with CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Two catalysts into a coiled tape.
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BTC enters Monday coiled around 63,000 after sweeping Friday's 60,000 local low and rejecting from 64,000 over the weekend. The tight range sits inside last week's value area between 59,000 and 66,000, with Q1's point of control and value area low overlapping the lower edge.
Structure remains bearish on the lower timeframes: 4-hour EMAs are stacked above price, June's monthly VWAP has capped every bounce, and the 200-week moving average at 68,000 sits overhead for the first extended stretch since the 2022 bear cycle low. The late-Sunday bounce closed shorts with stops up to 64,000, while $450 million in resting bids provide support down to 61,000. Max Pain squeezes to 65,000 with continuation to 75,000, the level that would target shorts opened during the reversal of April's bear market rally.
The week ahead pivots on two inflation reads, CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday. Tactical reads: a hold of 60,000 with reclaim of 64,000 unlocks the upper liquidity squeeze toward 65,000 and potentially 75,000; a flush through 60,000 confirms continuation lower into the broader 55,000-to-60,000 long-stop cluster.