BTC traded in a tight 62,000 to 65,000 range Thursday before drifting toward the lower end, with the 60,000 Q1 value area low as the next major reference and long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000. May non-farm payrolls printed 172,000 versus forecasts of 85,000, with prior months revised higher by a combined 93,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, pointing to a still-resilient labor market into the weekend.
🔴 June 5, 7:33am ET
Yesterday traded in a tight range between 62,000 and 65,000 after breaking down overhead.
Price looks heavy as it drifts toward the low end of the range. The question today: will 62,000 hold?
It has been down only in June since price lost support at 74,000.
Even alts, which looked strong to start the month despite Bitcoin's weakness, are now beginning to pull back.
Since losing the yearly VWAP and rejecting on the underside retest, price is headed toward the 60,000 local bottom.
The odds of a breakdown below that level are rising every day.
Through the first week, June's value area is capped by February's point of control and looks poised to sweep the February low.
The long cluster that opened during the April rally has closed out. The next liquidation cluster sits below 57,000.
A natural target if price loses the 60,000 floor in the local range.
Crypto is underperforming most other risk assets in June, and even the strong alt cohort within crypto is looking heavy.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are preparing for public offerings to tap liquidity in a market that feels more overextended each day.
May non-farm payrolls printed 172,000 versus forecasts of 85,000, with March and April revised higher by a combined 93,000.
The unemployment rate held at 4.3% in line with expectations, with the participation rate unchanged at 61.8% and U-6 falling to 8.1% from 8.2%. A resilient labor market read.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
The defining question for the New York session is whether 62,000 holds in the wake of a hot non-farm payrolls print (172,000 versus 85,000 forecast, with 93,000 in upward revisions to prior months and unemployment steady at 4.3%), or whether the resilient labor market read takes price through 62,000 toward the 60,000 Q1 value area low and the long stops accumulated between 55,000 and 60,000.
It has been down only in June since price lost 74,000, with even the strong alt cohort beginning to pull back. Crypto is underperforming most other risk assets, and June's value area is capped by February's point of control and looks poised to sweep the February low. The April long cluster closed out, leaving the next liquidation cluster below 57,000.
The cleanest tactical read into the print's wake: a hold of 62,000 with the bid absorbing the hot data sets up a stabilization attempt back into the 62,000 to 65,000 range; a flush through 62,000 confirms the structural drift toward 60,000, with the 55,000 to 60,000 long-stop cluster and the sub-57,000 liquidation cluster as the natural cascade into the weekend...