Price topped at 80,540 on Sunday evening and has ground steadily lower since, losing 80,000 without a reclaim attempt and carrying all the way back to the February open at 78,343, the level it broke out from on Thursday. Daily value has stepped down with it, the point of control walking from 80,975 on Friday to 78,425 today. Open interest fell through the first leg down as late longs closed, then turned back up over the last two sessions while price kept sliding, which is new shorts opening. Friday's payrolls printed 162K against 56K expected and the hawkish repricing followed.
🔴 September 8, 9:58am ET
Price topped at 80,540 on Sunday evening and has ground steadily lower since, losing 80,000 without a reclaim attempt.
It has now tested 78,250 twice this morning and is holding just above. Whether that shelf holds is the question into the session.
Thursday's squeeze pushed above 82,000 but could not hold.
Price has come all the way back to the February open at 78,343, the level it broke out from. Reclaiming or losing this is the whole question.
Price has slipped below Monday's low at 78,636 and is now trading beneath it.
The May swing high at 82,770 still caps this range from above, while the 30-day rolling VWAP has turned up off its local low to 74,200. The band between them is where this resolves.
Daily value has stepped down since Thursday's squeeze, with the point of control walking from 80,975 on Friday to 78,425 today.
Today's value area is 78,250 to 78,850 and price sits inside it at 78,470. Value is following price down rather than rejecting it.
Open interest fell through the first leg down, which is late longs closing rather than sellers pressing.
It has turned back up over the last two sessions while price kept sliding. That combination is new shorts opening, and it changes the character of this pullback.
Speculative on-chain volumes are at their highest since the Trump memecoin launch in January 2025, and the rotation is showing up in the ratios.
Alts have taken 5.80 percent more share of total market cap since early August against Bitcoin's 0.73 percent, with dominance rolling over from its peak.
Friday's payrolls printed 162K against 56K expected, nearly three times consensus, and the hawkish repricing followed.
PPI lands Thursday and inflation Friday, feeding into a September 16 decision the calendar now has forecast at 4 percent against 3.75 today.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
Price topped at 80,540 on Sunday evening and has ground steadily lower since, losing 80,000 without a reclaim attempt. It has tested 78,250 twice this morning and is holding just above. Thursday's squeeze pushed above 82,000 but could not hold, and price has now come all the way back to the February open at 78,343, the level it broke out from. Reclaiming or losing that is the whole question.
The structure underneath has softened with it. Price has slipped below Monday's low at 78,636 and is trading beneath it, with the May swing high at 82,770 still capping the range from above and the 30-day rolling VWAP turning up off its local low to 74,200. Daily value has stepped down since the squeeze, the point of control walking from 80,975 on Friday to 78,425 today, with today's value area at 78,250 to 78,850 and price sitting inside it. Value is following price down rather than rejecting it.
Positioning changed character partway through. Open interest fell through the first leg down, which is late longs closing rather than sellers pressing, but it has turned back up over the last two sessions while price kept sliding, and that is new shorts opening. Underneath, speculative on-chain volumes are at their highest since the Trump memecoin launch in January 2025 and alts have taken 5.80 percent more share of total market cap since early August against Bitcoin's 0.73 percent. Friday's payrolls printed 162K against 56K expected, nearly three times consensus, with PPI Thursday and inflation Friday feeding into a September 16 decision the calendar now has forecast at 4 percent against 3.75 today.