The squeeze carried through the New York session and wicked above 82,000 before failing to hold there, leaving price coiled in a tight band around 81,000. That caps fourteen days of range between 76,000 and 82,000, with price now back above the February open at 78,343 and sitting right on May's value area high. Yesterday's rally was short covering and fresh leveraged longs together, and resting asks have been absorbing into 81,000 and capping it since. Payrolls and the unemployment rate both land at 8:30 this morning.
🟡 September 4, 7:59am ET
The squeeze carried through the New York session and wicked above 82,000 before failing to hold there.
Price has coiled in a tight band around 81,000 since, and it goes into payrolls this morning without having resolved that rejection.
Fourteen days of coiling between 76,000 and 82,000, and yesterday's squeeze put price back above the February open at 78,343.
The range top is where it stalled. Whether buyers step up to fuel a breakout is what decides if this becomes the next leg or another rejection.
Price has escaped Monday's range, leaving the 79,230 high behind as support.
Early May's swing high at 82,770 is the next reference, just under 83,000. Above it, the yearly open at 87,600 is the next marked level on the chart.
Price is retesting May's value area high at 81,180 and sitting right on it.
That line is the boundary between August's distribution below and the May range above. Which side price holds today is what matters into payrolls.
Yesterday's rally was short covering and fresh leveraged longs together, with open interest spiking as price ran.
Resting asks have been absorbing into 81,000 and capping it since. That absorption is what has kept price coiled rather than extending.
The growth in alt share of total market cap has crossed above Bitcoin's since early August, at plus 1.97 percent against plus 1.61 percent.
Dominance has rolled over with it. After weeks of capital concentrating in Bitcoin, the rally is starting to spill outward.
Payrolls and the unemployment rate both land at 8:30 this morning.
Two labor prints into a market coiled at the top of its range.
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The squeeze that began Wednesday carried through the New York session and wicked above 82,000 before failing to hold there. Price has coiled in a tight band around 81,000 since, which caps fourteen days of range between 76,000 and 82,000. It goes into payrolls without having resolved that rejection, and the question is whether buyers step up to fuel a breakout or the range top rejects a second time.
The levels above are close together. Price has escaped Monday's range entirely, leaving the 79,230 high behind as support, and is sitting right on May's value area high at 81,180, the boundary between August's distribution below and the May range above. Early May's swing high at 82,770 is the next reference just under 83,000, with the yearly open at 87,600 the next marked level beyond it.
Positioning explains both the run and the stall. Yesterday's rally was short covering and fresh leveraged longs together, with open interest spiking as price ran, but resting asks have been absorbing into 81,000 and capping it since, which is what has kept price coiled rather than extending. Underneath, the growth in alt share of total market cap has crossed above Bitcoin's since early August and dominance has rolled over with it, so the rally is starting to spill outward after weeks of capital concentrating in Bitcoin.