The weekend traded entirely inside Friday's range before an early Monday break lower reversed sharply to retest 84,000 as resistance. Price has pulled back since failing to reclaim 87,000 last week and is now retesting the prior local range high as support, back below last week's value area with a single print near 82,000 still unfilled. Open interest keeps bleeding lower as late longs close, while altcoins gain share and the dollar and short-end rates firm ahead of job openings, GDP and inflation.
🟡 September 28, 5:04pm ET
The weekend traded entirely inside Friday's range.
Early Monday, price broke below that range before reversing sharply and retesting 84,000 as resistance.
The question is whether 84,000 caps this bounce or gets reclaimed.
Price has pulled back since failing to reclaim 87,000 early last week.
This morning's dip brought it back to the prior local range high, which is now being retested as support.
If that level holds, the breakout from the range stays intact. If it gives way, the old range comes back into play.
Price is coiling below the yearly open and holding above the early May swing high.
That swing high capped the previous local range, and it is now acting as the floor.
Between those two levels is where this consolidation gets resolved, and a break of either one likely sets the next direction.
Price is now back below last week's value area.
A single print left at the start of last week sits near 82,000 and could act as a magnet for price to revisit.
A fill there would open the path toward the prior week's value area high, just below 80,000.
Open interest has steadily bled lower as price pulled back from last week's highs.
That's a function of late longs closing, and the leverage built on the push toward 87,000 has now been largely unwound.
Since late August, altcoins have steadily gained share of the total crypto market, suggesting they could be bottoming for the cycle.
Outside crypto, the dollar is strengthening, short-end rates are rising, and the fewest stocks since April are above their 50-day average.
The question is whether altcoins can keep leading against that backdrop.
Job openings print tomorrow, followed by key GDP and inflation readings on Wednesday.
With the dollar firming and short-end rates rising, these prints land at a sensitive moment for risk appetite.
The question is whether the data adds fuel to that tightening or gives markets room to breathe.
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Price has spent the week giving back the push toward 87,000. The weekend held inside Friday's range, and early Monday's break below it reversed sharply, only to stall at 84,000 as resistance. The prior local range high, which capped the old range, is now being retested as support.
Value tells the same story. Price has slipped back below last week's value area, and a single print left near 82,000 sits as a potential magnet. A fill there would open the path toward the prior week's value area high just below 80,000. Open interest has bled lower throughout, as late longs close and the leverage from last week's push unwinds.
The backdrop is mixed. Altcoins have been gaining share of the market since late August, while the dollar strengthens, short-end rates rise, and equity breadth thins. Job openings print tomorrow, followed by GDP and inflation on Wednesday. The question is whether the range high holds as the floor into those prints.