Yesterday consolidated in a narrow range, capped by 85,000 with 83,000 holding as the floor, after price retraced half of Monday's squeeze while holding its reclaim above the local range high. Late longs closed out on the pullback, and a strong tranche of resting bids now defends 84,000, with two single prints and a naked point of control still unfilled below 82,000. Meanwhile, the 30 year yield is at its highest level since 2004 heading into next week's job openings, GDP and inflation prints.
🟡 September 25, 9:43am ET
Yesterday was a day of consolidation in a narrow range.
Price was capped by 85,000 on the upside, while 83,000 held as the floor.
The question is which side of this range gives way first.
Over the last few days, price has retraced half of Monday's squeeze and is now consolidating in a narrow range.
Through the pullback, it has held its convincing reclaim above the local range high.
As long as that reclaim holds, the breakout structure stays intact.
Price remains inside Monday's range, and the local swing high held as support on the retest.
The bounce off that level is starting to lose momentum, though.
If the swing high holds on another test, the breakout stays intact. If it fails, the lower half of Monday's range comes into play.
Value has pulled back after the failed attempt to reclaim the yearly open.
Below 82,000, where Monday's squeeze began, two single prints and a naked point of control are still unfilled.
The question is whether those gaps pull price back down to fill them.
The push toward 87,000 showed signs of absorption and buyer exhaustion, and late longs closed out on the pullback to 84,000 support.
A strong tranche of resting bids is now sitting at that level.
As long as those bids hold, 84,000 is the battleground for the next leg up.
Surging yields have become a Rorschach test, with investors re-evaluating their risk posture based on what they believe about this new market regime.
The 30 year yield is at 5.48 percent, its highest level since 2004, before the financial crisis.
How each investor reads that number says a lot about how they are positioned.
Next week brings job openings on Tuesday, followed by GDP and inflation on Wednesday.
With yields already pressing to multi-decade highs, these prints land at a sensitive moment.
The question is whether the data gives yields a reason to keep climbing or a reason to cool off.
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Monday's squeeze has now retraced by half, and price has settled into a narrow range between 83,000 and 85,000. The local swing high held as support on the retest, and the reclaim above the local range high is still intact, but the bounce off that level is losing momentum.
The push toward 87,000 showed absorption and buyer exhaustion, and late longs closed out on the way back down. What remains is a strong tranche of resting bids at 84,000, which makes that level the line between a consolidation that builds the next leg and a pullback that goes deeper. Below 82,000, where the squeeze began, two single prints and a naked point of control are still unfilled.
Rates add the outside pressure. The 30 year yield is at 5.48 percent, its highest since 2004, and next week brings job openings on Tuesday, then GDP and inflation on Wednesday. The question is whether the bids at 84,000 can hold while yields keep testing risk appetite.