Yesterday rejected from 87,000 again and slid lower all day, and overnight a second flush tagged 83,000 and held. The pullback retested the May 5th swing high at 82,771 as support and has landed on the four hour EMAs, right at the low end of this week's value area. Open interest has fully round tripped since the breakout while price held a higher low, and the flash composite PMI just posted its strongest reading since July 2021 as yields surge.
🔴 September 24, 11:03am ET
Yesterday rejected from 87,000 again and slid lower all day, flushing to 83,500 by midday.
Overnight, a second flush tagged 83,000 and held, and price has since recovered to 84,482.
The question now is whether 83,000 is the floor for this pullback.
Over the last few days, price broke out of the local range by reclaiming 82,342, then pulled back just short of the yearly open.
It is now consolidating on the four hour EMAs.
Continuation from here preserves market structure and sets up a rally into year end.
This pullback retested the May 5th swing high at 82,771 as support and bounced, with the overnight low holding above it.
Price is still consolidating inside Monday's range, between 80,819 and the high just under the yearly open at 87,608.
Holding the old swing high keeps the breakout intact.
After failing to reclaim the 2026 open, price has pulled back to the low end of this week's value area, sitting on the 84,300 value area low.
The week's point of control is up at 86,150, and all of this week's value sits above every prior week on the chart.
Holding 84,300 keeps this week's value intact.
Open interest has fully round tripped since the breakout, back to 21.6 billion and below the 22.2 billion it started from, while price put in a higher low around 84,500.
That suggests leveraged longs closed out in this pullback, while spot demand kept price from completing the round trip.
The leverage flush is done and price held.
You can start to hear whispers of euphoria, but crypto is pulling back today while yields surge after a five year high PMI print, with the 10 year at 5.13 percent and the 2 year at 4.88.
Bitcoin still leads the board but has cooled to 26.2 percent since July, while the share of stocks above their 50 day average has dropped to 30.
Euphoria meeting rising yields is the tension to watch.
The flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56, the strongest private sector expansion since July 2021 and a fourth straight month of acceleration.
Price pressures are building with it, as input costs rose the most since October 2022.
The question is whether reaccelerating input costs keep yields pressing higher.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
The pullback from 87,000 did what a healthy retrace is supposed to do: it came back to the breakout area and found buyers. The overnight flush tagged 83,000 and held above the May 5th swing high at 82,771, and price has since recovered to the four hour EMAs. That puts it right on the 84,300 value area low of a week whose entire value sits above every prior week.
What makes the pullback notable is what it cleared out. Open interest has fully round tripped since the breakout, back to 21.6 billion and below the 22.2 billion it started from, yet price put in a higher low instead of completing the same round trip. Leverage left, price did not follow it down.
The pressure now comes from outside crypto. The flash composite PMI printed 58.4, the strongest private sector expansion since July 2021, with input costs rising the most since October 2022, and the 10 year yield has pushed to 5.13 percent. The question is whether a cleaner positioning base can hold 83,000 while rates keep climbing.