Yesterday consolidated beneath 87,000 and the overnight session tried to break out and failed, pushing to 87,278 for the second time in three sessions before turning back. That high stopped 330 short of the yearly open at 87,608, with the Q4 2025 point of control at 87,746 sitting just above it. Underneath, the four hour EMAs have gone from ceiling to floor, resting bids keep absorbing the sell pressure, and open interest is easing off its peak without giving back the breakout.
🟡 September 23, 8:01am ET
Yesterday was a consolidation day holding beneath 87,000. The overnight session tried to break out and failed, pushing to 87,278 for the second time in three sessions before being rejected again. Price is back at 85,558. Two rejections off the same shelf with no new high is the pattern to watch.
Since breaking out from the local range at 82,342, the four hour EMAs have become the floor rather than the ceiling, and every pullback since has found them and held. Price at 85,540 is sitting on the fast EMA now. That makes this the cleanest test of that floor so far.
Price ran to 87,278 overnight and turned back, the second attempt in three sessions. It stopped 330 short of the yearly open at 87,608, so that level still has not been tested. Price remains inside Monday's range, floored at 80,819, with the 30 day rolling VWAP now at 79,166.
Price keeps coiling beneath the point of control of Q4 2025's profile at 87,746. That sits just above the yearly open at 87,608, so the two read as one band, not two. Both overnight attempts stalled below it. Price is still inside that quarter's value area, which runs down to 84,000.
Open interest at 23.33 billion remains above the 22.2 billion that capped it before this breakout, even after easing from yesterday's 23.72 billion. Net positioning has flipped short again through the consolidation, while resting bids stacked just under price keep absorbing the sell pressure.
A billion dollars in liquidations this week, and Polymarket now puts Bitcoin reaching 100,000 this year above 50 percent. Digital asset treasuries are accumulating again: Strategy initiates a 76 million buy, Strive adds another 108 million. CryptoPunks volume is rising, floor back to 32 ETH.
The macro calendar is quiet outside Trump's China summit. The dollar is firming as the 2 year yield climbs to 4.79 percent, with the 10 year at 4.98. Oil has rolled over from its September peak, trimming Brent's run to 15.6 percent. Bitcoin still leads the board, up 30.3 percent since July.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
The overnight high of 87,278 was the second attempt in three sessions at the same overhead band, and it stopped 330 short of the yearly open at 87,608. With the Q4 2025 point of control at 87,746 directly above, the two references function as a single shelf. Neither has actually been tested yet, which is the distinction that matters: price has failed approaching the band, not at it.
What changed underneath is the position of the four hour EMAs. Through the breakout leg they sat well below price as it ran; they have now climbed into it, and price at 85,540 is resting on the fast one. Every pullback since 82,342 has found them and held, so this is the cleanest read available on whether that floor is real.
Positioning argues the move is not finished unwinding. Open interest at 23.33 billion has eased from yesterday's 23.72 billion but remains above the 22.2 billion that capped it before the breakout, and net positioning has flipped short again through the consolidation. Resting bids are absorbing that pressure for now. The question is which side gets resolved first, the shorts above or the bids below.