Two attempts to break down at 75,000 earlier this week were rejected, and the buyer has taken price all the way back to acceptance above 78,000. That puts Bitcoin at the February open with a 153M resting bid underneath at 78,000 absorbing sellers who started pressing after two rejections from 78,400 this morning. The calendar is empty until the Trump and Xi summit on Wednesday, so this is a digestion week.
🟡 September 18, 9:42am ET
Price attempted to break down at 75,000 twice this week and was rejected both times. Since then the buyer has taken it all the way back, and it is now accepting above 78,000. A reversal built at the low end of the range is a different structure than one built at the top.
Tuesday printed a four hour close at a new low for the local range, below the level that had contained it since late August. That is either a deviation before the next attempt at resistance, or a change of character setting up a retrace of the late August debasement bid. Price is now back at the February open.
Price is still inside Monday's range at 76,350 to 79,570, and the 30 day rolling VWAP has climbed to 77,034, now inside that range rather than beneath it. A rising VWAP meeting price is digestion rather than rejection. The yearly open at 87,608 is still a long way overhead.
Weekly value has migrated lower since the rejection from 82,000, with the value area high stepping down from 80,100 to 78,800 to 77,500. Price at 78,062 has now climbed above this week's value area. The retest to watch is a pullback into 77,500.
Price rejected twice from 78,400 this morning and shorts have started pressing again. Sitting underneath is a 153M resting bid at 78,000, roughly eight times the size of the levels around it, absorbing the seller aggression. If it holds it is a springboard. If it goes, look out below.
The Clarity Act is still stuck, but the SEC has stepped in with guidance for tokenized assets. Macro is the less supportive side, with the Fed raising precautionarily into an economy running stronger than expected, which is not a tailwind for risk flows. Since late August alt share of the market is up 13.27% and dominance is down, so the catchup versus Bitcoin is still running.
The calendar is empty between yesterday's housing prints and next Wednesday, so this is a digestion week. Wednesday's hike to 4 percent, and yesterday's starts at 1.275M against 1.31M expected with permits at 1.394M against 1.41M, are what the market is still working through. The Trump and Xi summit lands next Wednesday.
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The week's structure is now a failed breakdown rather than a base. Price probed 75,000 twice and was rejected both times, and the recovery has been continuous enough that it is back at the February open without giving anything meaningful back.
What makes today different from the last four sessions is the size sitting underneath. A 153M resting bid at 78,000, roughly eight times the levels around it, is absorbing sellers who started pressing after two rejections from 78,400. That is a binary: it holds and becomes a springboard, or it goes and the reclaim was a deviation.
Underneath it all, weekly value has been migrating lower since the 82,000 rejection, stepping from 80,100 to 78,800 to 77,500. Price is above this week's value area for the first time in that sequence, which makes 77,500 the retest that matters on any pullback.