Bitcoin has spent the week inside a narrow range bounded by the February open above and 76,000 below, with yesterday's Fed hike to 4 percent landing exactly on consensus and changing little. Buyers squeezed shorts into the upper end of that range overnight, then this morning's sweep of the short liquidation cluster above 77,000 drew no follow through. Price sits in the lower third of Monday's range, retesting September's value area low from underneath.
🔴 September 17, 9:34am ET
Bitcoin has held a narrow range since Tuesday, and the only real volatility came around yesterday's FOMC decision. Buyers stepped in through the London session overnight and squeezed shorts back into the upper end of that range. Arriving at the highs is a different setup than fading them.
The last few days have been a fight between the February open at 78,343 overhead and 76,000 below. Four hour EMAs remain stacked bearishly and price is pressing into them now, so until it reclaims and flips them the risk of breaking down out of this consolidation stays elevated.
Price and the 30 day rolling VWAP at 76,952 are both inside Monday's range, which runs 76,350 to 79,570. The yearly open remains far overhead at 87,608 while the yearly VWAP sits well below. Price is in the lower third of that range and pressing the rolling VWAP.
Price deviated below September's value area low and is now retesting it from underneath, with May's value area low sitting at the same level. Two separate profiles agreeing on one level makes this the cleanest reference on the chart. Acceptance back inside value or rejection from it is the next tell.
Price swept the short liquidation cluster just above 77,000 this morning, with spot CVD ticking up behind the move. It came straight back under 76,800 with no follow through. Is this setting up for the next leg down?
The late August debasement bid has lost momentum and the range is looking heavy, with the market still digesting an FOMC that was hawkish in tone but largely priced. Since late August Bitcoin has trailed oil and the Nasdaq while edging ahead of gold and silver, and alt share of the market is up 5.85%. With the Clarity Act stalled, crypto needs a new catalyst to sustain buy side flows.
The 30 year mortgage rate sits at its highest level since January 2025, and this morning's housing data came in soft on both counts, with starts at 1.275M against 1.31M expected and permits at 1.394M against 1.41M. Yesterday's move to 4% matched consensus exactly, so the pressure is showing up in the rate sensitive economy rather than in any policy surprise.
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The sweep above 77,000 this morning did what a sweep is supposed to do. It took the short liquidation cluster, it drew an uptick in spot CVD, and then it stopped. Price was back under 76,800 inside the hour.
That leaves two references doing the work. Above, the February open and the four hour EMAs stacked bearishly beneath it, neither reclaimed. Below, September's value area low, confluent with May's, now being retested from underneath rather than from above.
The macro backdrop is not helping the bid. A 4 percent policy rate that surprised nobody, the 30 year mortgage at its highest since January 2025, and housing starts and permits both printing soft. The debasement trade that carried late August has stopped paying.