Price pushed to 79,600 yesterday and turned back, stopping short of 80,000 just as Friday's spike did at 79,880. It has given the whole move back overnight and sits at 77,050, back at the lower end of the range. Beneath it the supports have stacked tightly: May's value area low at 76,850, then Monday's low and the 30-day rolling VWAP together at 76,350, with the 75,900 range floor still untested. The tape has gone quiet since the rejection from 82,000 early this month, and futures put the odds of a hike tomorrow at 92.7 percent.
🔴 September 15, 9:59am ET
Price pushed to 79,600 yesterday and turned back, stopping short of 80,000 just as Friday's spike did at 79,880.
It has given the whole move back overnight and sits at 77,050, back at the lower end of the range into tomorrow's Fed decision.
Price keeps crossing the February open at 78,343 in both directions without holding either side.
Beneath it, 77,000 is the level price keeps returning to, though last week's lows at 76,050 and 76,400 traded through it. The 75,900 range floor is still untested.
Price is inside Monday's range, holding under the 79,570 high.
The 30-day rolling VWAP has climbed to 76,350 and now sits directly on Monday's low, so two independent supports have become one line. Losing that low means losing the VWAP with it.
Price is at the low end of September's value area, below August's value area high at 77,900 and back inside August's distribution.
It is now within a hundred points of May's value area low at 76,850. Three monthly profiles converge right here.
The tape has gone quiet since the rejection from 82,000 early this month. Open interest fell from 22.8B to under 19.5B and has only just stabilised, while both CVD series have flattened after a long slide.
Nobody is adding size here. That reads as waiting for the Fed rather than positioning ahead of it.
Democrats rejected the latest CLARITY Act draft over ethics concerns and are preparing a counterproposal, so the delay continues.
Bitcoin is ahead of gold, silver, the Nasdaq and Nvidia over the past month, but oil has run to local highs and is beating it by 10 percent. That does not help the inflation picture.
Futures put the odds of a hike tomorrow at 92.7 percent, with no change at 7.3 and easing at zero.
That has repriced fast. A month ago the same contract had a hike at 33 percent, a week ago 59 percent. The move to 375 to 400 basis points is now close to fully priced.
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Price pushed to 79,600 yesterday and turned back, stopping short of 80,000 just as Friday's spike did at 79,880. Those are two rejections roughly 280 apart, both under the round number, and the second one has been given back entirely: yesterday's advance ran from about 76,400 to 79,600 and price is now at 77,050, so the whole move is gone inside twelve hours.
The structure underneath has compressed into a ladder. Price keeps crossing the February open at 78,343 in both directions without holding either side, and 77,000 is the level it keeps returning to, though last week's lows at 76,050 and 76,400 traded through it. Below that sits May's value area low at 76,850, which price is within a hundred points of, then Monday's low and the 30-day rolling VWAP converged together at 76,350, and only beneath both does the 75,900 range floor sit still untested. On the monthly profiles, price is at the low end of September's value area and back inside August's distribution below its 77,900 value area high.
Flow has stopped rather than reversed. Open interest fell from 22.8B to under 19.5B since the rejection from 82,000 early this month and has only just stabilised, while both CVD series have flattened after a long slide. Nobody is adding size, which reads as waiting for the Fed rather than positioning ahead of it. Futures agree: the odds of a hike tomorrow are 92.7 percent with easing at zero, repriced from 33 percent a month ago and 59 percent a week ago. Elsewhere, Democrats rejected the latest CLARITY Act draft over ethics concerns, and while Bitcoin is ahead of gold, silver, the Nasdaq and Nvidia over the past month, oil has run to local highs and is beating it by 10 percent.