The weekend stayed quiet in a narrow range capped at 77,500 before price squeezed hard overnight off 76,400 and swept above 78,000 during London, tagging 78,380. It has faded back to 77,650 since, giving up the sweep. Support at 75,900 is still holding and the 30-day rolling VWAP has climbed above it to 76,220, so the two have converged into one band directly beneath price. September's point of control at 77,700 sits just inside August's value area high and is the pivot price is trading on. The FOMC decides Wednesday.
🟡 September 14, 9:56am ET
The weekend stayed quiet in a narrow range capped at 77,500.
Price squeezed hard overnight off 76,400 and swept above 78,000 during London, tagging 78,380. It has faded back to 77,650 since, giving up the sweep.
Support at 75,900 has held through every test this week, and price is back above the 4-hour EMAs after this morning's push.
The February open at 78,343 is still the cap. Price has been boxed between those two for a week, and the longer it sits the more fragile that floor looks.
The 30-day rolling VWAP has climbed to 76,220 and is now above the 75,900 range floor.
Support and the rising VWAP have converged into one band directly beneath price. The coil is tightening from below, and there is little room left before something gives.
September's point of control has settled at 77,700, just inside August's value area high, and price is sitting on it right now.
That makes this the pivot. Beneath it, August's single prints run unfilled from 74,000 down toward 66,000.
Sellers have had the tape since the sweep of 82,000 ten days ago. Perp CVD has fallen from roughly 7B to 415M and spot CVD has turned negative, with open interest off its peak.
Nothing in the flow has turned yet. A returning bid is what would change it.
The CLARITY Act is building momentum again, with Senate Republicans releasing a revised 635-page draft ahead of Tuesday's vote.
Bitcoin dominance has stabilized and turned up, and the alt complex has given back part of its gain, now 2.18 percent ahead of Bitcoin over the past month.
Friday's inflation landed close to consensus, with core at 0.3 percent against 0.2 expected and both annual rates in line.
Consumer sentiment missed badly at 47.8 against 51. The Fed decides Wednesday, with the calendar carrying a 4 percent forecast against 3.75 today.
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The weekend stayed quiet in a narrow range capped at 77,500. Price then squeezed hard overnight off the 76,400 low and swept above 78,000 during London, tagging 78,380 before fading back to 77,650. The sweep was given up, which leaves the week opening inside the same range it has held for seven sessions rather than breaking out of it.
The compression is now measurable from both sides. Support at 75,900 has held through every test, with the nearest approach around 76,050 on Thursday, and price is back above the 4-hour EMAs after this morning's push while the February open at 78,343 still caps. Beneath, the 30-day rolling VWAP has climbed to 76,220 and is now above the 75,900 floor, so the two supports we have tracked separately for a week have converged into a single band. That VWAP has risen more than 2,000 points in five sessions.
The pivot itself is well defined. September's point of control has settled at 77,700, just inside August's value area high, and price is sitting on both. Below that converged support band, August's single prints run unfilled from 74,000 down toward 66,000, so there is one defended shelf before the air opens. Flow has been one-sided throughout: sellers have had the tape since the sweep of 82,000 ten days ago, with perp CVD down from roughly 7B to 415M, spot CVD negative at -2.81B, and open interest off its 22.3B peak at 19.81B. Bitcoin dominance has stabilized and turned up while the alt complex gave back part of its gain. Friday's inflation landed close to consensus with core at 0.3 percent against 0.2 expected, though consumer sentiment missed badly at 47.8 against 51, and the Fed decides Wednesday with the calendar carrying a 4 percent forecast against 3.75 today.