Yesterday's London session hunted long liquidations, taking price from 78,000 down to 76,750 in a single bar. This morning's inflation print wicked to 76,050 and reversed hard, putting price back at 77,800, right under the level that breakdown began from. It remains below the February open at 78,343 with the 4-hour EMAs capping every push, and the range floor at 75,900 is still holding. Since the rejection from 82,000, open interest and both CVD series have fallen together, which is position-closing rather than fresh pressure. The FOMC decision lands Wednesday.
🟡 September 11, 9:43am ET
Yesterday's London session hunted long liquidations, taking price from 78,000 down to 76,750 in a single bar.
This morning's print wicked to 76,050 and reversed hard. Price is back at 77,800, right under the level that breakdown began from.
Price broke below the February open at 78,343 on Thursday and the 4-hour EMAs have capped it since, now stacked overhead and rolling down.
The range floor at 75,900 is still holding. That is the level standing between this pullback and a real retrace of the August advance.
Price swept the lower boundary of the range and bounced. It now sits between Monday's low at 78,636 overhead and the 30-day rolling VWAP at 75,180 beneath.
That band is tightening from both sides, with the rolling VWAP still rising.
Price is back inside this week's value area at 77,800 to 79,700, and that band sits almost on top of the prior two weeks. Three weeks of value in the same place.
Beneath it, the point of control from the late August advance at 77,250 is the reference this consolidation keeps returning to.
This morning brought another long liquidation sweep, among the largest of the week.
Since the rejection from 82,000, both spot and perp CVD have fallen and open interest has come down with them. Positions are being closed rather than replaced, and the tape has no clear bias.
The CLARITY Act heads for a Senate floor vote next week, with Democrats requesting over 100 changes to the latest draft and passage odds rising.
Underneath, alts keep taking share. Ether is up 9.43 percent against Bitcoin over the past month and the broader alt complex 6.58 percent.
Core inflation came in at 0.3 percent month over month against 0.2 expected, with headline at 0.4 after a 0.1 prior.
The annual rates were in line. That firmness lands five days before an FOMC decision the calendar already has forecast at 4 percent against 3.75 today.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
Yesterday's London session hunted long liquidations, taking price from 78,000 down to 76,750 in a single bar. Price held a narrow range through the rest of the session, and this morning's inflation print wicked to 76,050 before reversing hard. It is back at 77,800, right under the level that breakdown began from, which makes the reclaim of 78,000 the immediate question.
The structure has not repaired. Price broke below the February open at 78,343 on Thursday and the 4-hour EMAs have capped it since, now stacked overhead and rolling down. It sits between Monday's low at 78,636 above and the 30-day rolling VWAP at 75,180 beneath, a band tightening from both sides as that VWAP keeps climbing. The range floor at 75,900 is still holding, and that level is what stands between this pullback and a real retrace of the August advance. On the weekly profile price is back inside this week's value area at 77,800 to 79,700, a band sitting almost on top of the prior two weeks, with the point of control from the late August advance at 77,250 as the reference this consolidation keeps returning to.
Positioning is unwinding rather than pressing. Since the rejection from 82,000, open interest has fallen from roughly 22.3B to 20.07B while perp and spot CVD have dropped with it, so positions are being closed rather than replaced and the tape carries no clear bias. Underneath, alts keep taking share, with Ether up 9.43 percent against Bitcoin over the past month and the broader alt complex 6.58 percent, as the CLARITY Act heads for a Senate floor vote next week. Core inflation came in at 0.3 percent month over month against 0.2 expected, with headline at 0.4 after a 0.1 prior, though both annual rates were in line. That lands five days before an FOMC decision the calendar already has forecast at 4 percent against 3.75 today.