Two long squeezes this week, Tuesday and again Wednesday, and both bottomed just under 78,000 at 77,620 and 77,720. Between them price pushed to 79,780 and failed to reclaim 80,000, and it is back under 78,000 now, testing that zone a third time. Price has slipped below the February open at 78,343 and dropped out of Monday's range, with the 4-hour EMAs capping every push higher this week. Open interest is climbing while both CVD series fall, which is fresh shorts pressing rather than longs unwinding. PPI lands at 8:30 this morning.
🔴 September 10, 8:00am ET
Two long squeezes this week, Tuesday and again Wednesday, and both bottomed just under 78,000 at 77,620 and 77,720.
Between them price pushed to 79,780 and failed to reclaim 80,000. Price is back under 78,000 now, testing that zone a third time.
Price has slipped back below the February open at 78,343 and is trying to break down from it again.
The 4-hour EMAs have capped every push higher this week and are now stacked overhead. Below, 75,900 is the next marked level.
Price has dropped out of Monday's range, with the 78,636 low now overhead as resistance.
Underneath, the 30-day rolling VWAP keeps climbing and sits at 74,850. It is closing on this consolidation from below, which steadily compresses the room price has to work with.
September has spent its first ten days trading above August's value area, and price is now back at August's value area high near 77,900, testing it as support.
Below that sits the thin single-print strip August left on the way up. Losing this shelf opens that air.
Open interest has climbed steadily through the overnight while both CVD series fell, which is fresh shorts pressing rather than longs unwinding.
Long liquidation levels cluster down toward 77,000. That is the pool this pressure is working toward.
The TradFi ratios have faded since the late August debasement bid, with gold against Bitcoin dropping back to 45 percent, a level last seen in January.
Year to date, gold, oil, silver and the Nasdaq all remain ahead of Bitcoin.
PPI lands at 8:30 this morning with consensus at 0.4 percent after a flat prior month, then four inflation prints tomorrow.
Both feed the September 16 decision, still forecast at 4 percent against 3.75 today.
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Two long squeezes this week, Tuesday and again Wednesday, and both bottomed just under 78,000 at 77,620 and 77,720. Between them price pushed to 79,780 and failed to reclaim 80,000. It is back under 78,000 now, testing that zone a third time, and the level has been traded through on each of the prior two attempts rather than holding cleanly, which makes this a zone rather than a floor.
The structure has turned against it this week. Price has slipped back below the February open at 78,343 and is trying to break down from it again, with the 4-hour EMAs capping every push higher and now stacked overhead. It has dropped out of Monday's range, leaving the 78,636 low above as resistance, while the 30-day rolling VWAP keeps climbing and sits at 74,850, compressing the room from below. On the monthly profile, September has spent its first ten days above August's value area and price is now back at that value area high near 77,900, with the thin single-print strip August left on the way up sitting directly beneath.
Positioning has changed hands. Open interest climbed steadily through the overnight while both CVD series fell, which is fresh shorts pressing rather than longs unwinding, the opposite of Tuesday when open interest fell as longs closed. Long liquidation levels cluster down toward 77,000, though nothing has fired yet. On the cross-asset view, the TradFi ratios have faded since the late August debasement bid, with gold against Bitcoin dropping back to 45 percent, a level last seen in January, though year to date gold, oil, silver and the Nasdaq all remain ahead of Bitcoin. PPI lands at 8:30 with consensus at 0.4 percent after a flat prior month, then four inflation prints tomorrow, both feeding the September 16 decision.