Price stayed inside Sunday's range through yesterday, rejecting twice at 79,000 before rolling back over to retest the range floor at 78,000. Daily ranges have compressed into a tight coil sitting on the February open, with August's value area high just below and the two monthly profiles overlapping again. Open interest keeps climbing while perp CVD stays flat, and the long liquidation band under 77,000 is the magnet into a week that ends with payrolls.
🔴 September 1, 7:14am ET
Price stayed inside Sunday's range through yesterday, rejecting twice at 79,000 before rolling back over.
We are now retesting the range floor at 78,000. Whether that floor holds on this test is what decides if the range stays intact.
Since the rejection near 81,000 last week, daily ranges have compressed and price is coiling right on top of the February open.
Each swing is getting smaller. Watch which side of the coil gives first, because that resolution matters more than the level it breaks from.
Price has fully retraced the end-of-May breakdown and now sits in open space between the yearly open at 88,000 above and the yearly VWAP at 71,600 below.
The 30-day rolling VWAP has converged into that yearly VWAP, stacking support in one place. That convergence is the line that defines the rest of the year.
August's value area high at 77,900 has climbed back inside May's value area, so the two profiles overlap again.
Price is coiled just above that August high and threatening to slip back inside. Losing it puts the first trade of September right back into accepted value.
Open interest keeps climbing while perp CVD stays flat. Positions are building without a directional lean showing up in the flow, so the consolidation offers no clean read.
The long liquidation band under 77,000 is the magnet here. That is the side holding the most fuel if this range breaks.
Bitcoin just closed its best August since 2017, up almost 25 percent.
Sentiment needed price to move before the next round of narratives could form, and that is now underway. Retail activity across the Robinhood ecosystem is healthy and favorable regulation in Washington DC keeps inching forward even with the CLARITY Act delayed.
Warsh came in hawkish at Jackson Hole on Friday, and this week is dense with data.
Manufacturing PMI and job openings land this morning, services PMI Thursday, then payrolls Friday.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
Price spent yesterday inside Sunday's range, rejected twice at 79,000, and is now back down testing the range floor at 78,000. Since last week's rejection near 81,000 the daily ranges have compressed into a tight coil sitting directly on the February open, and each successive swing has been smaller than the last. Which side of that coil gives first is the question the session turns on.
The larger structure has price in open space. The end-of-May breakdown has been fully retraced, leaving the yearly open at 88,000 overhead and the yearly VWAP at 71,600 below, with the 30-day rolling VWAP now converged into that same yearly VWAP and stacking support in one place. On the monthly profile, August's value area high at 77,900 has climbed back inside May's value area, so the two overlap again and price is coiled just above that August high with room to slip back inside accepted value.
Positioning gives no clean read. Open interest keeps climbing while perp CVD stays flat, which is leverage building without a directional lean showing up in the flow, and the long liquidation band under 77,000 is the fuel sitting closest to price. Bitcoin just closed its best August since 2017 at almost 25 percent, which is the kind of month that lets narratives form again, but Warsh came in hawkish at Jackson Hole and this week is dense with data. Manufacturing PMI and job openings land this morning, services PMI Thursday, then payrolls Friday.