Price is pushing back into the supply zone where sellers last took control on the July 30th rejection, but the structure has shifted: Bitcoin convincingly reclaimed 64,000 and escaped the descending channel off the 67,000 rejection, with the 4-hour EMAs supporting every dip since the reversal from 62,500. It now sits between the 30-day VWAP at 64,000 and the 83,000-anchored VWAP at 66,500, pressing July's value area high at 65,000. This morning's nonfarm payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, softening the odds of further rate hikes.
🟡 August 7, 9:09am ET
Price is pushing back into the supply zone where sellers last took control on the July 30th rejection.
That earlier rejection sent price down to find support at 62,000.
Price has convincingly reclaimed 64,000 and escaped the descending channel that formed off the 67,000 rejection.
The 4-hour EMAs have supported every dip since price reversed from 62,500.
That combination marks a shift in market structure to the upside.
Price is now in its third day sandwiched between two VWAPs.
The rolling 30-day VWAP sits below at 64,000 as support, while the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown caps above at 66,500.
Whichever side gives first points the way for the next leg.
Price is pressing against July's value area high at 65,000 after the point of control held as support on the latest pullback.
Buyers defending the point of control and pushing back to the value area high keeps the recovery intact.
Acceptance above 65,000 is what turns this into more than a bounce.
The squeeze into 65,000 runs straight into a key short liquidation zone, with late longs pressing against resting sell orders at supply.
If sellers absorb this thrust, it sets up for a sharp reversal as trapped longs unwind.
That absorption is the tell for whether the push higher stalls here.
Bitcoin dominance has climbed since the start of July, a sign alts have lagged well behind Bitcoin's recent rally.
Pair that with long-term holders distributing, a negative Coinbase premium, and more perp than spot CVD.
Together it points to limited risk appetite among crypto investors, even on this bounce.
This morning's nonfarm payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July against expectations for an 80,000 gain, on top of a downward revision to June.
A labor market this soft cuts the odds of further rate hikes ahead.
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BTC re-tests the zone that rejected it once already, pushing back into the supply where sellers last took control on July 30th, a rejection that had sent price down to support at 62,000. What is different this time is the structure: price has convincingly reclaimed 64,000 and escaped the descending channel that formed off the 67,000 rejection, with the 4-hour EMAs supporting every dip since the reversal from 62,500. That combination marks a shift in market structure to the upside, and the question is whether it carries through this overhead test.
The levels converge at the decision point. Price is now in its third day sandwiched between the rolling 30-day VWAP at 64,000 as support and the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown capping above at 66,500. On the profile, price is pressing against July's value area high at 65,000 after the point of control held as support on the latest pullback; buyers defending the point of control and pushing back to the value area high keeps the recovery intact, but acceptance above 65,000 is what turns this into more than a bounce. Order flow frames the risk right here: the squeeze into 65,000 runs straight into a key short liquidation zone, with late longs pressing against resting sell orders at supply, and if sellers absorb this thrust it sets up for a sharp reversal as trapped longs unwind.
The broader tape argues for caution even on the bounce. Bitcoin dominance has climbed since the start of July, a sign alts have lagged well behind Bitcoin's rally, and paired with long-term holders distributing, a negative Coinbase premium, and more perp than spot CVD, it points to limited risk appetite among crypto investors. The macro wildcard broke soft: this morning's nonfarm payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July against expectations for an 80,000 gain and a downward revision to June, cutting the odds of further rate hikes ahead. Tactical reads: acceptance above 65,000, absorbing the short-liquidation supply, opens the path toward the 66,500 anchor; a rejection here that traps the late longs points back toward the 64,000 VWAP support and the range below.