64,500 has capped price despite three attempts to break through since yesterday's New York session, while 64,000 has held as support through the pullbacks. That level is the upper boundary of the descending channel off the 67,000 rejection and lines up with the 30-day VWAP, making it the key pivot where reclaim and reversal sit at roughly equal odds. Flows point to range-bound consolidation until they tip clearly in one direction.
🟡 August 5, 8:12am ET
64,500 has capped price despite three attempts to break through since yesterday's New York session.
Through those pullbacks, 64,000 has held as support.
Continuation higher stays on the table as long as that floor holds.
Price is pressing against the 64,000 supply zone, the upper boundary of the descending channel we've tracked since the rejection from 67,000.
This is the level every bounce inside the channel has struggled to clear.
A break and hold above it would be the first real challenge to that downtrend.
Price is pressing right against the rolling 30-day VWAP at 64,000.
This remains the key pivot, where reclaim and reversal scenarios sit at roughly equal probability.
How price resolves here tilts the odds for the next leg.
Price is trading right at the June and July point of control at 64,000, pressing toward last week's value area high at 64,500 that has capped this bounce.
That rejection would fit the next lower high in the downtrend from 67,000.
A reversal toward this week's value area low at 63,500 would confirm it.
CVD has fallen alongside price ever since the rejection from 83,000 in early May.
Perp CVD has bounced modestly since price found a floor at 58,000, while spot CVD stays flat.
That balance points to range-bound consolidation until flows tip clearly in one direction.
Citadel absorbing the distressed Situational Awareness book marks a possible turning point in the unwind of AI value-chain hype names.
The question is whether this is the first leg of a regime change or just a pullback before the next push higher.
Macro reads mixed: the 30-year yield is stabilizing after its climb while the dollar has slipped since late July.
Yesterday's job openings came in without surprise, keeping the data flow quiet so far.
Services PMI lands today, then the week builds to Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment print.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
BTC sits coiled at its pivot as 64,500 has capped price despite three attempts to break through since yesterday's New York session, while 64,000 has held as support through the pullbacks. Continuation higher stays on the table as long as that floor holds. That 64,000 level is the upper boundary of the descending channel we've tracked since the rejection from 67,000, the level every bounce inside the channel has struggled to clear; a break and hold above it would be the first real challenge to that downtrend.
The levels converge. Price is pressing right against the rolling 30-day VWAP at 64,000, the key pivot where reclaim and reversal scenarios sit at roughly equal probability, and it aligns with the June and July point of control. Price is pushing toward last week's value area high at 64,500 that has capped this bounce, a rejection that would fit the next lower high in the downtrend from 67,000, with a reversal toward this week's value area low at 63,500 as confirmation. Flow keeps the picture balanced: CVD has fallen alongside price ever since the rejection from 83,000 in early May, perp CVD has bounced modestly since price found a floor at 58,000, and spot CVD stays flat, pointing to range-bound consolidation until flows tip clearly in one direction.
The backdrop is mixed. Citadel absorbing the distressed Situational Awareness book marks a possible turning point in the unwind of AI value-chain hype names, leaving open whether this is the first leg of a regime change or just a pullback before the next push higher, while macro reads mixed with the 30-year yield stabilizing after its climb and the dollar slipping since late July. On the calendar, yesterday's job openings came in without surprise, Services PMI lands today, and the week builds to Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment print. Tactical reads: a reclaim and hold above 64,500 challenges the channel top and opens room higher; a rejection here confirms the lower high and points back toward 63,500 and the range below.