Support held at 62,000 yesterday and New York squeezed shorts with a sweep of 64,000, but that level flipped back to resistance and has capped price through the London session. Still inside the descending channel off the July 21st rejection from 67,000, price is pressing the upper boundary at prior resistance where a reversal would set up a 62,000 retest. A strong Manufacturing PMI print stands out as one of the few macro tailwinds pointing higher.
🔴 August 4, 9:29am ET
Support held at 62,000 yesterday, and New York squeezed shorts with a sweep of 64,000.
The overnight session retested that level, which flipped back to resistance and has capped price through the London session.
The 62,000 floor and 64,000 ceiling still define the fight.
Price continues to respect the descending channel that formed off the failed breakout and rejection at 67,000.
It is now pushing into the upper boundary of that channel, right at the prior 64,000 resistance.
A reversal here aligns with the structure and sets up a retest of 62,000.
The rolling 30-day VWAP is capping price at 64,000, a significant prior support now flipped to resistance.
Reclaim that level and the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown sits above at 66,500.
Those two lines mark the ladder bulls have to climb to change the trend.
Price found support yesterday at July's value area low and pushed up into the June and July point of control at 64,000.
A rejection right at that shared point of control adds confirmation to the downtrend continuation case.
Acceptance above it increases the odds of a positioning squeeze higher.
Spot and perp CVD have both climbed off the third drive into 62,000 since Friday, with open interest falling.
That mix reads as a squeeze, picking up momentum as shorts close.
But 64,000 is the pivot, and clearing it takes real buyer initiative to overcome the resting sell orders absorbing there.
Sentiment is dragging as the long-term holder cohort begins distributing again, a shift visible in their position change.
A Coldcard exploit has added to the unease, giving some holders another reason to sell rather than hold.
The question now is whether macro can turn in a way that sparks a genuine risk-on flow back into crypto.
Manufacturing PMI has held a narrow range since 2023 but has been climbing through 2026, with a strong print yesterday.
Historically, a rising and elevated PMI has lined up with strength in Bitcoin's price.
If that relationship holds, it stands out as one of the few macro tailwinds pointing higher.
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BTC holds within its range after support held at 62,000 yesterday and New York squeezed shorts with a sweep of 64,000, only for that level to flip back to resistance and cap price through the London session. The 62,000 floor and 64,000 ceiling still define the fight. Structurally, price continues to respect the descending channel that formed off the July 21st failed breakout and rejection at 67,000, and it is now pushing into the upper boundary right at prior resistance. A reversal here aligns with the structure and sets up a retest of 62,000, while acceptance above would be the first crack in the downtrend thesis.
The levels stack overhead. The rolling 30-day VWAP is capping price at 64,000, a significant prior support now flipped to resistance, and above it the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown sits at 66,500, the ladder bulls have to climb to change the trend. On the profile, price found support yesterday at July's value area low and pushed up into the shared June and July point of control at 64,000; a rejection right there adds confirmation to the downtrend continuation case, while acceptance above increases the odds of a positioning squeeze higher. Flow supports the bounce for now: spot and perp CVD have both climbed off the third drive into 62,000 since Friday with open interest falling, a mix that reads as a squeeze picking up momentum as shorts close, but 64,000 is the pivot and clearing it takes real buyer initiative to overcome the resting sell orders absorbing there.
The backdrop is mixed. Sentiment is dragging as the long-term holder cohort begins distributing again, with a Coldcard exploit adding to the unease and giving some holders another reason to sell, leaving open whether macro can turn in a way that sparks a genuine risk-on flow back into crypto. One tailwind stands out: Manufacturing PMI has held a narrow range since 2023 but has been climbing through 2026 with a strong print yesterday, and historically a rising and elevated PMI has lined up with strength in Bitcoin's price. Tactical reads: rejection at 64,000 keeps the descending channel intact and points back toward 62,000, then July's value area low; a reclaim of 64,000 and the 30-day VWAP shifts the odds toward a squeeze up to the 66,500 anchor.