Bitcoin swept Friday's low over the weekend but support just above 62,000 held, while overhead resistance stayed firm with price failing to reclaim 64,000. Still inside the descending channel off the July 21st rejection from 67,000, price is testing the July 17th swing low at 62,500 and has spent the first three days of August below the 30-day VWAP. It is a heavy data week, opening with Manufacturing PMI today and building to Friday's nonfarm payrolls print.
🟡 August 3, 9:19am ET
Price swept Friday's low over the weekend, but support just above 62,000 held.
Overhead resistance stayed firm, with price failing to reclaim 64,000.
That leaves price boxed between a defended floor and a ceiling it can't yet break.
Price is still inside the descending channel that began with the July 21st rejection from 67,000.
It has swept lower and is now threatening the July 17th swing low at 62,500.
A bounce here that finds acceptance back above 64,000 would ease the odds of downtrend continuation.
Price has spent the first three days of August below the rolling 30-day VWAP, which has flipped from support to resistance.
Until price can reclaim that level, it stays poised to retest the local bottom.
That reclaim is the first thing bulls need back.
Price is looking for support here at July's value area low near 62,500.
Below that, June's value area low sits under 60,000 as the next shelf.
Losing July's low would put that lower value area back in play as the magnet.
After a mellow weekend bounce and failed reclaim of 64,000, shorts are piling in as open interest rises into this retest of support at 62,000.
If buyers can absorb that selling, it sets up the next springboard for a squeeze.
If they can't, the base case is a retest of the local bottom at 58,000.
The Senate has until Friday to pass the Clarity Act before the August recess, and the risk it slips past that deadline is weighing on sentiment.
Meanwhile the Coinbase premium index, a proxy for US institutional demand, has now spent 77 straight days in the red.
Demand from that cohort simply has not shown up.
This week opens with Manufacturing PMI today and job openings tomorrow.
Services PMI follows Wednesday, building to Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment print.
That jobs report is the marquee event that can set the tone into mid-month.
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BTC opens the week boxed in after sweeping Friday's low over the weekend while support just above 62,000 held and overhead resistance stayed firm, with price failing to reclaim 64,000. Structurally it remains inside the descending channel that began with the July 21st rejection from 67,000, and it has swept lower to threaten the July 17th swing low at 62,500. A bounce here that finds acceptance back above 64,000 would ease the odds of downtrend continuation; without it, the path of least resistance stays lower.
The levels are decisive. Price has spent the first three days of August below the rolling 30-day VWAP, which has flipped from support to resistance, and until that level is reclaimed the setup stays poised to retest the local bottom. On the profile, price is looking for support at July's value area low near 62,500, with June's value area low under 60,000 as the next shelf; losing July's low would put that lower value area back in play as the magnet. Positioning adds tension: after a mellow weekend bounce and the failed reclaim of 64,000, shorts are piling in as open interest rises into this retest of 62,000. If buyers can absorb that selling it sets up the next springboard for a squeeze; if not, the base case is a retest of the local bottom at 58,000.
The backdrop leans cautious. The Senate has until Friday to pass the Clarity Act before the August recess, and the risk it slips past that deadline is weighing on sentiment, while the Coinbase premium index, a proxy for US institutional demand, has now spent 77 straight days in the red. On the macro side, the week opens with Manufacturing PMI today and job openings tomorrow, Services PMI follows Wednesday, and it all builds to Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment print, the marquee event that can set the tone into mid-month. Tactical reads: absorbing the selling at 62,000 and reclaiming the 30-day VWAP and 64,000 revives a squeeze back toward the channel top; losing 62,500 opens July's value area low and clears the path toward 60,000 and the 58,000 local bottom.