Asia pushed to a new local high at 81.45k overnight and was rejected inside the same half hour, handing the entire move back before midnight and leaving a second failed breakout in a week. London carried the bleed down to 79k, which held on the first test, and price has bounced back onto the 4-hour EMAs with the February open at 78.3k untouched below. Open interest and CVD have fallen together since the rejection, which reads as longs closing rather than sellers pressing, and Warsh delivers his first keynote at 10am.
🔴 August 28, 9:18am ET
Asia pushed to a new local high at 81.45k just after 9pm and was rejected inside the same half hour, handing the entire move back before midnight.
London carried the bleed down to 79k, which held on the first test and has bounced price back to 79.6k.
Whether that hold is a base or just a pause is the question into the Warsh speech.
The pullback from last night's failed breakout has brought price back onto the 4-hour EMAs, which are being tested as support rather than broken.
The February open at 78.3k sits another 1.3k below and has not been threatened through any of this.
Two layers of support under a rejected high is what separates a pullback from a reversal.
Last night's push swept the prior weekly high and set a new one at 81.5k before price fell back inside Monday's range.
Monday's high at 80k is overhead resistance again rather than a launch pad, with the yearly open still far above at 87.6k.
That is the second breakout attempt this week to fail back into the range, with Monday's low at 76.6k still the floor.
This week's value is a narrow band between 78.2k and 80.1k, and last night's thrust swept May's value area high before price came straight back inside.
Below that, last week's point of control sits at 77.25k with May's value area low near 76.6k beneath it.
The surge left multiple single prints between 65k and 77k, the air under this market if the pullback finds momentum sellers.
Price has now been rejected from 81k twice, and both attempts were absorbed rather than followed through.
Open interest and CVD have fallen together since the second rejection, with open interest rolling over from its highs.
That combination is longs closing out rather than sellers pressing, which is a gentler pullback than a real break would look like.
The debasement basket is still working, with gold up 10 percent, oil up 21 and the 30 year holding 5.2, but bitcoin has stalled at the highs while they keep going.
Momentum in the trade that carried this move is slowing even as its macro backdrop holds.
Absent a fresh catalyst, that gap resolves on exhaustion rather than continuation.
Warsh delivers his first keynote at the Kansas City Fed's annual conference at 10am, landing in the same hour as the preliminary payrolls benchmark revision, where the prior read was negative 911k.
The market is listening for a read on the economy and for reassurance the Fed would still move on rates if it had to.
That is the catalyst this move has been waiting on.
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Asia pushed to a new local high at 81.45k just after 9pm and was rejected inside the same half hour, handing the entire move back before midnight. London carried the bleed down to 79k, which held on the first test and has bounced price back to the high 79s. That push swept the prior weekly high and set a new one at 81.5k before falling back inside Monday's range, making it the second breakout attempt this week to fail back in.
The structure underneath is intact. Price is sitting on the 4-hour EMAs, which are being tested as support rather than broken, and the February open at 78.3k sits another 1.3k below without having been threatened at any point. This week's value is a narrow band between 78.2k and 80.1k, with last week's point of control at 77.25k beneath it and May's value area low near 76.6k below that. Further down, the surge left multiple single prints between 65k and 77k, which is the air under this market if the pullback ever finds momentum sellers.
Positioning argues for a pullback rather than a break. Open interest and CVD have fallen together since the second rejection, with open interest rolling over from its highs, and that combination is longs closing out rather than sellers pressing. The macro backdrop has not deteriorated either, with gold up 10 percent, oil up 21 and the 30 year holding 5.2, but bitcoin has stalled at the highs while the rest of the debasement basket keeps going. Warsh delivers his first keynote at 10am alongside the payrolls benchmark revision, and that is the catalyst this move has been waiting on.