London broke out to 80.5k and handed the entire move back by the New York open, at which point New York reclaimed it and made two runs at 81k, stalling just under on both. That leaves price still inside Monday's range with the breakout attempt unconfirmed, and May's value area high near 81.3k continuing to cap the advance. Underneath, the February open at 78.3k is carrying the whole structure, while CVD and open interest have been flat for a week and net positioning has turned negative.
🟡 August 27, 3:00pm ET
Asia balanced between 78.6k and 79k before London broke out at 4am, tagged 80.5k, and handed the whole move back by the New York open.
New York reclaimed it and has twice pushed at 81k, stalling at 80.85k both times.
Price has since slipped back under the session VWAP, so whether that hands the level back or just resets it is the question into the close.
Price went from 63k to 79k in five sessions off the August base, then extended to 81k and was rejected there.
The pullback stopped on the February open at 78.3k, and every dip into it since has been bought.
That level is carrying the entire structure, so losing it is what changes the picture.
Today's push to 80.85k cleared Monday's high before price came back inside the range, leaving the breakout attempt unconfirmed.
Monday's high at 80k is the immediate line, with the weekly and monthly high at 81.3k above it and the yearly open the next real objective at 87.6k.
Accepting above 80k is what opens that path, and Monday's low at 76.6k is the floor underneath.
Price has now made two runs at May's value area high near 81.3k and been turned back at 81k both times.
May's point of control at 77k sits well below and has not been retested since price reclaimed it, so the whole of May's value is acting as support rather than resistance.
Clearing that value area high is the difference between a range top and a continuation.
CVD and open interest have both been flat since price first failed at 80k a week ago, so there has been no buyer initiative behind this range.
Open interest is ticking up again at 20.4B while delta stays flat and net positioning turns negative, which reads as new shorts rather than new buyers.
Whether that becomes fuel for another squeeze or a sharp reversal is the question.
The narrative is following price rather than leading it. Bessent doubling the buyback program restarted the debasement trade, and the headlines have arrived since.
The first quantum safe bitcoin transaction was executed, and VanEck now says its quant signals mark the bear market as over.
Narrative catching up to a move that already happened is worth noting on its own.
Nothing prints today, which leaves tomorrow as the only event left on the board.
Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am, landing in the same hour as the preliminary payrolls benchmark revision, where the prior read was negative 911k.
A Fed chair and a labor market revision in the same slot is the setup into the weekend.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
Asia balanced between 78.6k and 79k before London broke out at 4am and tagged 80.5k, then handed the entire move back to roughly 79k by the New York open. New York reclaimed it and made two runs at 81k, stalling at 80.85k both times, with price since slipping back under the session VWAP. That push cleared Monday's high before coming back inside the range, which leaves the breakout attempt unconfirmed.
The structure underneath is the February open at 78.3k, which stopped the pullback off the 81k rejection and has been bought on every dip since. Overhead, May's value area high near 81.3k has now turned price back twice, and it sits with the weekly and monthly high at the same level. May's point of control at 77k has not been retested since price reclaimed it, so the whole of May's value is acting as support, with Monday's low at 76.6k the floor beneath that and the yearly open at 87.6k the next real objective above.
Positioning is the part that does not confirm. CVD and open interest have both been flat since price first failed at 80k a week ago, so there has been no buyer initiative behind this range at all. Open interest is now ticking up again at 20.4B while delta stays flat and net positioning turns negative, which reads as new shorts arriving rather than new buyers. Whether that becomes fuel for another squeeze or the start of a sharp reversal is the open question into Warsh tomorrow.