BTC has repriced from the low 63s into the 79s since Tuesday and spent the whole weekend beneath Saturday's rejection at 78.8k without giving any of it back. The rally has round tripped price to the origin of the late May breakdown and parked it on May's point of control near 77k, the first real supply overhead. The move cleared over 2.5B in shorts, but spot CVD climbed alongside it and the Coinbase premium printed positive after months below zero, so this was not only a squeeze.
🟢 August 24, 8:59am ET
Saturday opened with an immediate rejection from 78.8k, and the rest of the weekend traded beneath it in a tight band.
London took another run at the highs early this morning and reversed straight back into the range.
The question is whether that failed push marks the range top or just resets it.
BTC has repriced from the low 63s into the 79s since Tuesday, and every pullback since has stayed shallow.
That bid lines up with the expanded Treasury buyback announced last week, with BTC anchoring a rekindled debasement trade.
Price has held sideways since Friday, so the question is whether this digests or gives it back.
The rally has round-tripped price back to the origin of the late May breakdown near 78.5k, the same shelf that gave way into the June lows.
The weekly high sits just overhead at 77.9k with the monthly high at 79.5k, and yearly VWAP is now far below at 71.5k.
Reclaiming that origin and holding it is a different market than tagging it and failing.
August's profile now stretches from July's value area in the low 60s all the way into May's up near 80k, a single month covering two very different regimes.
Price is sitting right on May's point of control at 77k, with that value area high overhead at 81.3k.
Accepting into May's value is one outcome, rejecting from its POC puts the whole August range back in play.
The run from 64k liquidated over 2.5B of shorts still betting the cycle low was ahead, and open interest climbed from 17.3B to past 20B.
Spot CVD stepped up alongside it and the Coinbase premium has printed positive after months below zero, so this was not only a squeeze.
Net positioning has drifted negative the last three sessions even so.
The debasement trade is heating up again and the long end is doing the talking, with the 30 year at 5.25 percent while the dollar rolls over and gold holds a bid.
Bessent's treasury twist funds long end buybacks with short dated issuance, and the Genius Act requires dollar stables to be backed by exactly that short dated paper.
Two policies converging on the same collateral.
Core PCE and the second read on Q2 GDP both land Wednesday morning, with consensus looking for inflation to tick up to 0.2 percent while growth revises down to 1.5 percent.
Fed Chair Warsh then speaks Friday alongside the payrolls benchmark revision.
Hotter inflation into slower growth is the exact mix this bid has been feeding on.
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BTC has repriced from the low 63s into the 79s since Tuesday and every pullback since has stayed shallow. Saturday opened with an immediate rejection from 78.8k and the rest of the weekend traded beneath it in a tight band, with London taking one more run at the highs early Monday before reversing straight back into the range. The question is whether that failed push marks the range top or simply resets it.
The rally has round tripped price to the origin of the late May breakdown near 78.5k, the same shelf that gave way into the June lows, with the weekly high just overhead at 77.9k and the monthly high at 79.5k. Yearly VWAP now sits far below at 71.5k after months of price trading under it. August's profile has stretched from July's value area in the low 60s all the way into May's up near 80k, and price is sitting directly on May's point of control at 77k with that value area high at 81.3k above.
The run from 64k liquidated over 2.5B of shorts still betting the cycle low was ahead, and open interest climbed from 17.3B to past 20B. Spot CVD stepped up alongside it and the Coinbase premium printed positive after months below zero, so this was not only a squeeze, though net positioning has drifted negative the last three sessions even so. The driver is a Treasury twist that funds long end buybacks with short dated issuance while the Genius Act requires dollar stables to hold exactly that paper, two policies converging on the same collateral. Core PCE and the second read on Q2 GDP land Wednesday.