BTC has advanced from the mid 60s to just under 79,000 in three sessions, each one opening above the prior day's range and holding into the close, and price still has not traded back into the rising EMAs. It tagged the February open at 78,343 for the second time this year and has already slipped back beneath it, the only other visit being the May high that rolled straight over into the June breakdown. Open interest and CVD climbed the whole way up while Coinbase premium and long term holder positioning stayed negative, so the marginal buyer here is leveraged rather than spot, and the driver is a Treasury that has doubled its debt buybacks.
🟢 August 21, 9:58am ET
Market structure has changed. BTC has advanced from the mid 60s to just under 79k in three sessions, with each one opening above the prior day's range and holding into the close.
Price still has not traded back into the rising EMAs. Until it does, this is a trend that has not yet been tested.
Price tagged the February open at 78,343 for the second time this year and has already slipped back beneath it.
The only other visit was the May high, and that one rolled straight over into the June breakdown. The binary is whether this squeeze reclaims and holds, or whether it is a bear market rally on its way to new cycle lows.
Price surged through the yearly VWAP near 70k and is now backing into the origin of the late May breakdown.
The yearly open sits overhead at 88k. Reclaim the local range high and that level comes into play. This is the first real supply the rally has run into.
Price is back inside May's value area, and the value area low near 76.5k has held the first pullback.
Underneath that the profile thins out badly into the June breakdown. Lose 76k and the single prints below come back into play.
Open interest has climbed with price through this entire advance while perp and spot CVD pushed higher. That is new long leverage more than offsetting the short positioning getting squeezed out of position.
Coinbase premium and long term holder positioning have both stayed negative the whole way up. The marginal buyer here is leveraged, not spot.
The macro tape has been quiet apart from one item. Treasury doubled its debt buybacks to steady the bond market, and Bessent has signaled he is ready to go further.
Gold moved first, bitcoin followed and is up close to 20% since Wednesday, and the dollar sold off. Equities have not participated at all. This is a debasement bid, not broad risk appetite.
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Market structure has changed. BTC has advanced from the mid 60s to just under 79,000 in three sessions, with each one opening above the prior day's range and holding into the close, and price still has not traded back into the rising EMAs. Until it does, this is a trend that has not been tested. It tagged the February open at 78,343 for the second time this year and has already slipped back beneath it. The only other visit was the May high, and that one rolled straight over into the June breakdown.
Overhead, price surged through the yearly VWAP near 70,000 and is now backing into the origin of the late May breakdown, the first real supply this rally has run into. The yearly open sits above at 88,000, and a reclaim of the local range high brings it into play. Below, price is back inside May's value area and the value area low near 76,500 has held the first pullback. Underneath that the profile thins out badly into the June breakdown, so losing 76,000 puts the single prints back in play.
The internals argue for caution. Open interest has climbed with price through the entire advance while perp and spot CVD pushed higher, which is new long leverage more than offsetting the shorts getting squeezed out of position. Coinbase premium and long term holder positioning have both stayed negative the whole way up, so the marginal buyer here is leveraged rather than spot. The macro driver is a Treasury that doubled its debt buybacks to steady the bond market, with Bessent signaling he is ready to go further. Gold moved first, bitcoin followed and is up close to 20% since Wednesday, the dollar sold off, and equities have not participated at all. That is a debasement bid, not broad risk appetite.