Price tagged 65,000 and was rejected inside the hour, then faded overnight into the low 64,200s before London bought it back into the middle of the range. Monday's hold of the 63,000 demand zone came with real volume behind it, and price has now reclaimed the 30 day rolling VWAP near 64,400, though 65,000 still caps value for both July and August. Spot and perp CVD climbed through the bounce while open interest fell the whole way, leaving reversal risk live into FOMC minutes this afternoon and a quiet macro calendar until core PCE next Wednesday.
🟡 August 19, 9:19am ET
Price tagged 65,000 and was rejected inside the hour, handing back the entire push.
The fade carried overnight into the low 64,200s before London bought it back into the middle of the range.
That leaves 65,000 above and 64,200 below as the band that decides today.
Monday's hold of the 63,000 demand zone came with real volume behind it, and the days since have been a steady grind higher.
That effort culminated in a sweep through 65,000 that was handed back almost as fast as it printed.
Holding the 64,000s after taking that liquidity is what keeps the week constructive.
Price has reclaimed the 30 day rolling VWAP near 64,400 and is sitting right on top of it.
Above there, the weekly high just over 65,000 and the monthly high near 65,900 are the next references, with the month's low at 62,570 still the floor that matters.
Holding this line on the next pullback is what turns the reclaim into support instead of a brief tag.
64,000 is the point of control June and July share, and price is sitting right on it.
65,000 caps value for both July and August, while August has built its own point of control and value area low just under 63,000.
Until 65,000 is accepted rather than tagged, this stays a rotation between two months of established value.
Spot and perp CVD both climbed through the bounce off 63,000, but open interest fell the whole way, back to the low end of the month.
Buying that comes from positions closing rather than fresh initiative tends to stall once the fuel is spent.
Sharp reversal risk stays live until real spot demand shows in the tape.
The SEC is offering registration exemptions after the CLARITY act failed to pass before recess, and VanEck put out a note flagging 8 of 12 capitulation signals triggered.
Metaplanet is standing up a US treasury vehicle while Arthur Hayes unretires to lead FLOP Labs.
The narrative flow is constructive, and the treasury equities carrying it are still basing near their lows.
FOMC minutes hit at 2pm ET today, and then the calendar empties out until next Wednesday.
That session brings core PCE, where forecasts look for a jump to 0.3% from 0.1%, alongside the second estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.5%.
A thin macro week leaves price action to carry itself until then.
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Bitcoin tagged 65,000 and was rejected inside the hour, handing back the entire push. The fade carried overnight into the low 64,200s before London bought it back into the middle of the range, leaving 65,000 above and 64,200 below as the band that decides today. Zoomed out, Monday's hold of the 63,000 demand zone came with real volume behind it, and the days since have been a steady grind higher into that sweep.
The structure overhead is well defined. Price has reclaimed the 30 day rolling VWAP near 64,400 and is sitting right on top of it, with the weekly high just over 65,000 and the monthly high near 65,900 as the next references and the month's low at 62,570 as the floor. On the profile, 64,000 is the point of control June and July share while 65,000 caps value for both July and August, and August has built its own point of control and value area low just under 63,000. Until 65,000 is accepted rather than tagged, this stays a rotation between two months of established value.
Underneath, the bounce is missing initiative. Spot and perp CVD both climbed through the move off 63,000, but open interest fell the whole way back to the low end of the month, the signature of positions closing rather than fresh buyers stepping in. The news flow is constructive, with the SEC offering registration exemptions after the CLARITY act stalled and Metaplanet standing up a US treasury vehicle, yet the treasury equities carrying that story are still basing near their lows. FOMC minutes at 2pm ET are the last scheduled catalyst until core PCE next Wednesday.