Price bounced from support over the weekend and pushed above 64,000 during the New York session, but the overnight retest stalled at 64,500, leaving a tight band where the first boundary to give way sets the direction. The last two weeks have been a round trip, down to 63,000, up above 65,000, and back, with price now pressing into the 30-day VWAP near 64,200 and the upper half of July's value area between the 64,000 point of control and the 65,000 value area high. Open interest has stayed flat while perp CVD spiked, reading as shorts closing rather than fresh buyers, and housing starts missed against a beat in building permits heading into FOMC minutes tomorrow.
🟡 August 18, 9:17am ET
Price bounced from support over the weekend and pushed above 64,000 during the New York session.
The retest overnight found resistance at 64,500 and faded from there.
That leaves a tight band to work with, and the first boundary to give way sets the direction into today.
The last two weeks were a round trip, down to 63,000, up into the 65,000s, and right back to 63,000.
Price is bouncing from that zone again.
Whether it stalls beneath the prior high or convincingly reclaims 65,000 is what separates another lower high from a real continuation setup.
Price is pressing into the rolling 30 day VWAP near 64,200, the level it lost on the way down last week.
Reclaiming it puts the monthly high near 65,900 back in view.
Failing here keeps the recent lower high structure intact.
Price has worked back into the upper half of July's value area, between the 64,000 point of control and the 65,000 value area high.
August has built its own value lower, closer to 63,000.
Acceptance back above 65,000 is what would separate this from another rotation inside the range.
Spot CVD has ticked up through this bounce, but open interest has stayed flat.
That combination, alongside the spike in perp CVD, reads as shorts closing rather than fresh buyer initiative.
Whether spot demand builds from here is what decides if the move has anything behind it.
BTC has chopped in a narrow range since the start of July.
Dominance has climbed through that stretch as the bid for alts dried up, with the OTHERS index breaking down and capped near 165B since.
Until that changes, strength stays concentrated rather than broad.
Housing starts came in at 1.239M against a 1.35M consensus while building permits beat at 1.443M.
Permits are running ahead of actual groundbreaking, leaving the housing read mixed rather than directional.
FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon are the next event capable of setting the tone.
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Bitcoin bounced from support over the weekend and pushed above 64,000 during the New York session, then met resistance at 64,500 on the overnight retest and faded from there. That leaves a tight band to work with, and the first boundary to give way sets the direction into today. Zoomed out, the last two weeks have been a round trip, down to 63,000, up above 65,000, and right back to 63,000, with price now bouncing from that zone again.
The levels overhead are stacked. Price is pressing into the rolling 30-day VWAP near 64,200, the level it lost on the way down last week, and sits in the upper half of July's value area between the 64,000 point of control and the 65,000 value area high. Reclaiming the VWAP puts the monthly high near 65,900 back in view, while failing there keeps the recent lower high structure intact. August has built its own value lower, closer to 63,000, so acceptance back above 65,000 is what would separate this from another rotation inside the range.
Underneath, the bounce lacks initiative. Spot CVD has ticked up but open interest has stayed flat, and the spike in perp CVD reads as shorts closing rather than fresh buyers stepping in. Breadth is no better: BTC has chopped in a narrow range since the start of July while dominance climbed and the OTHERS index broke down and has been capped near 165B, leaving strength concentrated rather than broad. On the macro side, housing starts came in at 1.239M against a 1.35M consensus while building permits beat at 1.443M, a mixed read heading into FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon. Tactical read: escaping 64,500 opens the path back toward the monthly high, while losing 64,000 puts the 63,000 zone back in play.