Support held at 62,500 through the weekend, but early London saw a sharp rejection from 63,800 before price bounced from the 63,000 demand zone, a level that's now been tested and held twice since last week's failed reclaim of 65,000. The August low is holding as price works back toward the 30-day VWAP and last month's point of control, both just above 64,000, while a failed break of 62,000 by aggressive shorts is starting to look like a squeeze. Equities have recovered from July's fakeout but crypto has stayed flat, with Coinbase premium and long-term holder positioning both negative heading into a data-heavy week.
🔴 August 17, 9:28am ET
Support held at 62,500 through Friday's close, with the weekend session trading in a narrow range.
Early London saw a sharp rejection from 63,800, pulling price back toward the lower end of that range.
Whether support keeps absorbing pressure or gives way here sets the tone into the New York open.
Price bounced from the 63,000 demand zone on Sunday.
That bounce follows a week of pullback after failing to reclaim 65,000 the week prior.
The zone has now been tested and held twice, raising the question of whether it's building a base or just delaying a deeper retracement.
The August low held on this pullback.
Price is now working back up toward the rolling 30-day VWAP, which sits overhead above 64,000.
That VWAP has capped rallies before, making it the level to watch for whether this bounce turns into something more.
August's value area low held as support on this pullback.
Price is now attempting to reclaim last month's point of control, which sits overhead near 64,000.
Reclaiming that level would shift the balance back in favor of the range's upper half.
Aggressive selling failed to push price below 62,000, with seller initiative absorbed by resting buy orders.
This bounce reads as a squeeze, with late shorts closing out.
Whether it holds depends on fresh buyers stepping in, or it risks running out of steam.
Equities, and AI names in particular, have bounced back from the July 29th fakeout that liquidated Leopold's leveraged book.
Crypto has stayed flat through that recovery, with no meaningful new flows.
Coinbase premium and LTH net positioning are both deep negative, reinforcing the disengagement.
Housing starts print tomorrow, followed by FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
Core PCE and GDP growth follow next week.
Together they set up the next read on rate-cut odds heading into September.
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Bitcoin held support at 62,500 through Friday's close and traded in a narrow range over the weekend before a sharp rejection from 63,800 in early London. That rejection sits inside a broader bounce off the 63,000 demand zone that began Sunday, following last week's pullback from a failed reclaim of 65,000. The zone has now been tested and held twice, raising the question of whether it's building a base or just delaying a deeper retracement.
The levels are lining up as the next test. The August low held on this pullback, and price is working back up toward the rolling 30-day VWAP and last month's point of control, both sitting just above 64,000. That VWAP has capped rallies before, and reclaiming the point of control above it would shift the balance back in favor of the range's upper half; failing there keeps the bounce contained.
Underneath, the move has the shape of a squeeze rather than fresh demand. Aggressive selling failed to push price below 62,000, with seller initiative absorbed by resting buy orders, and the bounce reads as late shorts closing out rather than buyers stepping in with conviction. Equities, and AI names in particular, have recovered from July's fakeout, but crypto has stayed flat through that recovery, with Coinbase premium and long-term holder positioning both deep negative. Housing starts print tomorrow, FOMC minutes hit Wednesday, and Core PCE and GDP round out next week, all setting up the next read on rate-cut odds. Tactical read: clearing 64,000 turns this into a real reclaim; failing there and losing 62,000 again reopens the case for a deeper retest.