Price rejected from 65,000 during yesterday's London session before finding support at 64,000 into New York, and it is now trying to reclaim the hourly EMAs. Balance sits right at 64,000, the point of control of the range back to mid-July, with price retesting the 30-day VWAP from below as seller aggression returns and long liquidations stack lower. Zoom out and the structure has the shape of a bottoming phase, no longer printing lower lows, though the last one stretched over 270 days.
🟡 August 11, 7:21am ET
Price rejected from 65,000 during the London session yesterday before finding support at 64,000 into New York.
It is now trying to reclaim the hourly EMAs.
Fail to reclaim them and continuation lower becomes the base case.
Price is balancing right at 64,000, the point of control of the local range that stretches back to mid-July.
That level has drawn price back repeatedly, acting as the range's center of gravity.
How price leaves this balance points the way for the next move.
Price is retesting the rolling 30-day VWAP from below after slipping under it.
That flips the month's key line from support back to resistance unless price can reclaim it.
Price swept the naked point of control at 63,800 that was left behind on Tuesday last week.
Above, yesterday's profile left a single print at 64,500, a thin area price tends to revisit.
Those two references bracket the near-term rotation.
Seller aggression is returning as price bounces from 64,000.
Long liquidations are stacked below, setting up the potential for a cascade.
A flush through them opens the door to a sweep of 62,000.
Zoom out and this has the shape of a bear market bottoming phase, with price consolidating and no longer printing lower lows on each pullback.
That is not a call that the bottom is in, only a read on structure.
For context, the last bottoming phase stretched over 270 days, so these tend to take time.
Existing home sales land today, then the key inflation print hits tomorrow.
That inflation reading is the one with the weight to move rate expectations this week.
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BTC sits in balance after rejecting from 65,000 during yesterday's London session and finding support at 64,000 into New York. Price is now trying to reclaim the hourly EMAs, and failing to do so makes continuation lower the base case. That 64,000 level is the point of control of the local range stretching back to mid-July, the range's center of gravity that has drawn price back repeatedly, so how price leaves this balance points the way for the next move.
The levels have tilted against buyers at the margin. Price is retesting the rolling 30-day VWAP from below after slipping under it, which flips the month's key line from support back to resistance unless it is reclaimed. On the profile, price swept the naked point of control at 63,800 left behind on Tuesday last week, while yesterday's session left a single print at 64,500, a thin area price tends to revisit; those two references bracket the near-term rotation. Order flow leans the same way: seller aggression is returning as price bounces from 64,000, and long liquidations are stacked below, setting up the potential for a cascade that opens the door to a sweep of 62,000.
The bigger picture keeps the read patient rather than bearish. Zoom out and this has the shape of a bear market bottoming phase, with price consolidating and no longer printing lower lows on each pullback; that is not a call that the bottom is in, only a read on structure, and for context the last bottoming phase stretched over 270 days, so these tend to take time. On the calendar, existing home sales land today and the key inflation print hits tomorrow, the reading with the weight to move rate expectations this week. Tactical reads: reclaiming the 30-day VWAP and the 64,500 single print keeps balance intact and the bottoming thesis alive; losing 64,000 and triggering the stacked long liquidations opens the path toward the 62,000 sweep.