Friday pushed into the supply zone just above 65,000 and Sunday retested it as resistance before rejecting again, leaving price back inside 65,000 retesting support. The breakout from the descending channel holds as price consolidates above it, boxed between the 30-day VWAP at 64,300 and the 83,000-anchored VWAP at 66,400. A sweep of 66,000 would clear overhead sell orders, but flat spot CVD means continuation still needs buyer initiative the tape has not shown yet.
🟡 August 10, 9:24am ET
Friday pushed into the supply zone just above 65,000, and Sunday retested it as resistance before rejecting once again.
Price is now back inside 65,000 and retesting support.
The repeated rejection keeps 65,000 the level buyers have to reclaim.
Price convincingly broke out of the descending channel last week and is now consolidating around 65,000.
That consolidation is holding above the breakout level rather than falling back into the channel.
Holding here keeps the breakout intact as buyers work to build a base.
The rolling 30-day VWAP sits just below price at 64,300, providing near-term support.
Overhead, the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown still caps at 66,400.
Price is boxed between the two, and the side that gives first sets the next move.
August's point of control is tucked right beneath its value area high.
That value area high lines up with the June and July value area highs, stacking three months of resistance at one shelf.
Clearing that confluence is what would open real room above.
A sweep of 66,000 would clear the resting sell orders and wipe out the remaining short leverage overhead.
But spot CVD has stayed flat since price swept 65,000.
Continuation up to 66,000 needs real buyer initiative, and the tape just is not showing it yet.
Since early 2025, the asset classes have split hard: Bitcoin is down over 30% while the Nasdaq is up nearly 40%, and silver looks poised to roundtrip a parabola that ran past 240%.
Each asset sits in a different place on sentiment, with crypto wondering if this is the bottom.
Meanwhile stretched AI valuations could turn fast on the next rotation, with SanDisk and Micron already looking heavy.
Coming off Friday's soft nonfarm payrolls, the data picks back up this week.
Existing home sales land tomorrow, then key inflation readings hit on Wednesday.
That inflation print is the one with the weight to move rate expectations.
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BTC opens the week digesting its channel breakout at a familiar wall. Friday pushed into the supply zone just above 65,000, Sunday retested it as resistance and rejected once again, and price is now back inside 65,000 retesting support, which keeps 65,000 the level buyers have to reclaim. Structurally the breakout still holds: price convincingly broke out of the descending channel last week and is consolidating above the breakout level rather than falling back into the channel, working to build a base rather than extend immediately.
The levels frame a tight decision zone. The rolling 30-day VWAP sits just below at 64,300 as near-term support, while the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown caps overhead at 66,400, boxing price between the two. On the profile, August's point of control is tucked right beneath its value area high, and that value area high lines up with the June and July value area highs, stacking three months of resistance at one shelf; clearing that confluence is what would open real room above. Order flow shows why it is not there yet: a sweep of 66,000 would clear the resting sell orders and wipe out the remaining short leverage overhead, but spot CVD has stayed flat since price swept 65,000, so continuation needs real buyer initiative the tape is not yet showing.
The cross-asset and macro backdrop keeps expectations measured. Since early 2025 the asset classes have split hard, with Bitcoin down over 30% while the Nasdaq is up nearly 40% and silver poised to roundtrip a parabola that ran past 240%, each sitting in a different place on sentiment as crypto wonders whether this is the bottom, while stretched AI valuations could turn fast on the next rotation with names like SanDisk and Micron already looking heavy. On the calendar, coming off Friday's soft nonfarm payrolls, existing home sales land tomorrow and key inflation readings hit Wednesday, the print with the weight to move rate expectations. Tactical reads: reclaiming 65,000 with buyer initiative opens the 66,000 sweep toward the 66,400 anchor; losing the 64,300 VWAP puts the breakout retest and the range below back in focus.