Bitcoin stayed quiet yesterday with a quick liquidity sweep at 65,000 after the open, then the overnight session squeezed up into supply at 65,200 before reversing sharply, the classic mousetrap. Ten days into a descending channel off the 67,000 rejection, price is now testing the 30-day VWAP that held as support all month, with continuation lining up a retest at 62,000. The Fed held rates Wednesday and yesterday's print showed US GDP growth softening, closing out the month's macro slate.
🔴 July 31, 9:54am ET
Yesterday stayed quiet, with a quick liquidity sweep at 65,000 after the open.
The overnight session then squeezed up into the supply zone at 65,200 before reversing sharply, the classic mousetrap.
That failed push leaves the burden back on buyers to defend below.
Ten days now inside a descending channel that formed off the rejection at 67,000.
Continuation toward the lower boundary of that channel lines up a retest at 62,000.
Each failed bounce keeps that path the one of least resistance.
Price is now testing the rolling 30-day VWAP, the level that has held as support for the entire month of July.
Losing it removes the floor that has defined the month.
Below that, the local bottom sits down at 58,000 as the next major reference.
July's value area high capped this week's short squeeze, and price has since slipped below July's point of control.
July's value area low sits just above 62,000, with June's value area low just below 60,000 beneath it.
Trading under the point of control keeps the profile tilted toward those lower references.
There is an air pocket in the order book, so a loss of 63,500 could send price quickly to the next demand zone at 63,000.
Longs that opened since Wednesday keep closing as price falls.
That combination leaves little to catch a flush until the lower demand comes into play.
The AI trade plunged late in July before reversing sharply on rumors that Citadel absorbed Leopold's overleveraged portfolio.
FTX begins its fifth distribution tomorrow, roughly 900 million to creditors, pushing total payouts near 10 billion since the 2022 collapse.
Wintermute notes a growing share of its OTC flow now comes from institutions, a quiet signal of who is stepping in.
The Fed held rates as expected on Wednesday, and yesterday's print showed US GDP growth softening.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
BTC closes out July on the defensive after a quiet session gave way to a mousetrap: a quick liquidity sweep at 65,000 after the open, then an overnight squeeze into supply at 65,200 that reversed sharply, leaving the burden back on buyers to defend below. The move fits the broader structure, ten days into a descending channel off the 67,000 rejection where each failed bounce keeps continuation toward the lower boundary and a 62,000 retest the path of least resistance.
The levels are decisive here. Price is testing the rolling 30-day VWAP that has held as support for the entire month of July; losing it removes the floor that defined the month, with the local bottom at 58,000 the next major reference beneath. On the profile, July's value area high capped this week's short squeeze and price has since slipped below July's point of control, tilting the read toward July's value area low just above 62,000 and June's value area low just below 60,000. Positioning adds fragility: there is an air pocket in the order book, so a loss of 63,500 could send price quickly to the next demand zone at 63,000, and longs that opened since Wednesday keep closing as price falls, leaving little to catch a flush until lower demand comes into play.
The backdrop is a mix of returning capital and lingering risk. The AI trade plunged late in July before reversing sharply on rumors that Citadel absorbed Leopold's overleveraged portfolio, FTX begins its fifth distribution tomorrow with roughly 900 million to creditors pushing total payouts near 10 billion since the 2022 collapse, and Wintermute notes a growing share of its OTC flow now comes from institutions. On the macro side, the Fed held rates as expected Wednesday and yesterday's print showed US GDP growth softening, closing the month's calendar. Tactical reads: holding the 30-day VWAP keeps the range and a bounce within the channel alive; losing it and the 63,500 shelf opens the air pocket toward 63,000, with 62,000 and then 58,000 the deeper downside references.