Price failed to reclaim 66,000 yesterday and lost support at 64,000 heading into the Asia overnight session, tilting the two-month range back toward its floor. Shorts are pressing into the pullback as open interest rises and CVD falls, with long liquidations clustered at 61,800 as the magnet below. FOMC lands tomorrow, the first heavy macro test of the range, with GDP and Core PCE the day after.
🔴 July 28, 8:17am ET
Price failed to reclaim 66,000 yesterday and then lost support at 64,000 heading into the Asia overnight session.
Losing that shelf keeps the burden on buyers to defend the lower end of the range.
Two months of chop now, boxed between 67,000 at the top and 58,000 at the floor.
Price looks poised to continue lower and retest the low end of that range.
One more sweep of the range high above 67,000 can't be ruled out, but the weight is tilting down.
Price is sandwiched between two VWAPs, with the rolling 30-day sitting below at 62,000 and the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown capping above.
That band is tightening, and the level price loses first points the way out.
After four weeks of climbing, value is drifting lower again, sliding toward July's value area low at 62,000.
June's value area low sits further down at 60,000 as the next reference beneath it.
Shorts are pressing into this pullback, with open interest rising as CVD falls alongside price.
Two demand zones sit below, just above 62,000 and just above 61,000.
Long liquidations cluster below with 61,800 as the primary magnet where we'll look for fresh seller initiative as liquidations cascade.
Bitcoin is up 5% on the month, but July has been rough on risk broadly, with the Nasdaq off more than 5% and semis down over 10%.
Oil climbed most of the month before giving back about half of it last week, while the two-year yield grinds higher.
Caution is the vibe as investors weigh a late-cycle pullback against the start of a deeper correction.
All eyes turn to the FOMC decision tomorrow.
Kevin Warsh has stood up five task forces of outside experts to review how the Fed analyzes the economy and communicates its decisions.
Tomorrow offers the first real look at how this Fed reads the data and explains itself.
Follow @ShikumiDaily for more session commentary and analysis.
BTC enters Tuesday on the back foot after failing to reclaim 66,000 yesterday and then losing support at 64,000 heading into the Asia overnight session, keeping the burden on buyers to defend the lower end of the range. Two months of chop now, boxed between 67,000 at the top and 58,000 at the floor, and price looks poised to continue lower and retest the low end. One more sweep of the range high above 67,000 can't be ruled out, but the weight is tilting down.
The levels frame the tension. Price is sandwiched between two VWAPs, with the rolling 30-day sitting below at 62,000 and the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown capping above; the band is tightening, and the level price loses first points the way out. Value has turned with it, as four weeks of climbing give way to a drift lower toward July's value area low at 62,000, with June's value area low further down at 60,000 as the next reference beneath.
Positioning and macro both lean cautious. Shorts are pressing into this pullback, with open interest rising as CVD falls alongside price, and two demand zones sit below just above 62,000 and 61,000. Long liquidations cluster with 61,800 as the primary magnet where fresh seller initiative could send liquidations cascading. Across assets, Bitcoin is up 5% on the month but July has been rough on risk broadly, with the Nasdaq off more than 5% and semis down over 10%, oil giving back about half its monthly climb last week, and the two-year yield grinding higher. Caution is the vibe as investors weigh a late-cycle pullback against the start of a deeper correction, with all eyes on the FOMC decision tomorrow. Tactical reads: defending 62,000 keeps the range intact and a sweep back toward 67,000 alive; losing it and triggering the 61,800 liquidation pool opens the path toward 60,000 and the range floor at 58,000.