The breakdown from 67,000 carried into yesterday as London sliced through 65,000 support, with resting buy orders absorbing the selling and the bounce liquidating late shorts. Price is still holding an ascending channel of higher lows but stays capped by 67,000, with daily value drifting lower and falling CVD and open interest reading as longs closing. FOMC lands next Wednesday as the first scheduled catalyst with the weight to break the range.
🔴 July 24, 9:10am ET
The breakdown from 67,000 carried into yesterday, with London slicing through 65,000 support as resting buy orders absorbed the selling.
The bounce off that absorption liquidated late shorts, and price is now back retesting 65,000.
Price is still holding an ascending channel of higher lows over the last few weeks.
But the top of that channel keeps running into the same 67,000 ceiling that has capped every attempt.
Until one of those two structures breaks, the squeeze between rising support and fixed resistance tightens.
Price spent July inside an ascending channel, boxed between two VWAPs.
The rolling 30-day VWAP sits below as dynamic support, while the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown caps the top near 67,000.
That band has defined the entire month, and the level price loses first points the way out.
The daily value area has been drifting lower since the rejection from 67,000.
Price retested the prior day's point of control and was swiftly turned away, a sign that downside momentum is still intact.
As long as value keeps migrating lower, rallies into it stay sell-side until proven otherwise.
CVD and open interest have both fallen since the 67,000 rejection, so this pullback reads as longs closing rather than fresh shorts pressing.
Sellers still have not overcome the resting buy orders stacked below 65,000.
Watch for a long liquidation cascade or fresh seller initiative to crack that shelf and open a retest lower.
It has been a tale of two tapes since May, with alts and equities outrunning Bitcoin into early June before Bitcoin clawed most of that gap back, though it still lags.
Clarity Act progress and steady adoption sit as tailwinds against Middle East escalation, firmer oil, and lingering inflation worry.
The cross-currents keep leadership murky rather than decisive.
Outside of headline risk from the Middle East, the macro calendar stays quiet until the FOMC decision next Wednesday.
That leaves price to trade its own structure and positioning for the rest of the week.
Next Wednesday is the first scheduled catalyst with the weight to break the range.
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BTC enters Friday retesting 65,000 after the breakdown from 67,000 carried into yesterday, with London slicing through the level as resting buy orders absorbed the selling and the bounce liquidating late shorts. Structurally, price is still holding an ascending channel of higher lows over the last few weeks, but the top of that channel keeps running into the same 67,000 ceiling that has capped every attempt. Until one of those two structures breaks, the squeeze between rising support and fixed resistance tightens.
The month has traded inside a well-defined band. Price spent July boxed between the rolling 30-day VWAP below as dynamic support and the VWAP anchored to the 83,000 breakdown capping the top near 67,000, and the level it loses first points the way out. Value is drifting with it, as the daily value area turns lower since the rejection from 67,000 and price retested the prior day's point of control before being swiftly turned away, a sign downside momentum is still intact. As long as value keeps migrating lower, rallies into it stay sell-side until proven otherwise.
Positioning keeps the read cautious. CVD and open interest have both fallen since the 67,000 rejection, so this pullback reads as longs closing rather than fresh shorts pressing, and sellers still have not overcome the resting buy orders stacked below 65,000. Watch for a long liquidation cascade or fresh seller initiative to crack that shelf. Underneath, it has been a tale of two tapes since May, with alts and equities outrunning Bitcoin into early June before Bitcoin clawed most of that gap back, while Clarity Act progress and steady adoption sit as tailwinds against Middle East escalation, firmer oil, and lingering inflation worry. Outside of that headline risk, the macro calendar stays quiet until FOMC next Wednesday. Tactical reads: reclaiming and holding 65,000 keeps the ascending channel alive and puts the 67,000 cap back in focus; a long liquidation cascade through the sub-65,000 bids opens the path to a deeper retest.