Bitcoin defended 63,000 during yesterday's London breakdown attempt and climbed back above 66,000, now pressing into the supply zone and the early-May anchored VWAP near 67,000. Price has reclaimed the June and July value areas, but the rally is futures-led, with flat open interest and spot not confirming. FOMC lands Wednesday as the main event on deck.
🟡 July 21, 9:18am ET
Price held a narrow range through the weekend before sellers pressed the London session lower yesterday.
Buyers stepped in at 63,000 and turned it into a floor, lifting price back above 66,000.
The question now is whether that defense holds or just delays another test lower.
The last few days have been a steady climb, carrying price up into the supply zone above 66,000.
This is the same area where the prior rally rolled over and reversed.
Watch whether buyers can absorb this zone or whether it caps the move again.
Price is pressing into the anchored VWAP from early May, the level where the breakdown from 83,000 began.
That same 67,000 area is where price rejected back in mid June.
It is the clearest overhead test on the board, and how price reacts there sets the tone.
Price has climbed above both the June and July value areas and is now pressing against the value area high from the first week of June.
Trading back into a higher-value shelf shows buyers reclaiming ground that was ceded on the way down.
Acceptance above it would open room higher; rejection keeps this a lower-high.
This has been a futures-led rally since the start of July, with flat open interest and spot CVD not confirming the move.
The next short liquidation cluster sits above 68,000, but resting sell orders stand in the way between here and there.
Buyers need to show more initiative to clear that supply in order to push shorts offside.
Bitcoin is having a strong month, up over 15% in 20 days, but it is not carrying the rest of the market with it.
The total crypto index excluding the top 20 is up only 6% over the same stretch.
A true risk-on shift would push capital out the risk curve; instead flows are concentrating in Bitcoin as dominance climbs.
The macro tape has been quiet since the soft inflation reading on July 14th gave risk assets room to breathe.
The next real event is the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
Until then, price action is left to trade on its own structure rather than the calendar.
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BTC enters Tuesday back above 66,000 after buyers defended 63,000 through yesterday's London breakdown attempt and turned it into a floor. The last few days have been a steady climb into the supply zone above 66,000, the same area where the prior rally rolled over and reversed. Overhead sits the anchored VWAP from early May near 67,000, the level where the breakdown from 83,000 began and where price rejected back in mid June. That is the clearest overhead test on the board, and how price reacts there sets the tone.
Structurally the move has reclaimed ground, but the internals are thin. Price has climbed above both the June and July value areas and now presses against the value area high from the first week of June, which shows buyers reclaiming ground ceded on the way down. Yet this is a futures-led rally since the start of July, with flat open interest and spot CVD not confirming the move. The next short liquidation cluster sits above 68,000, but resting sell orders stand between here and there. Buyers need to show more initiative to clear that supply in order to push shorts offside.
The cross-asset read reinforces the caution. Bitcoin is up over 15% in 20 days but is not carrying the rest of the market, with the total crypto index excluding the top 20 up only 6% over the same stretch. A true risk-on shift would push capital out the risk curve; instead flows are concentrating in Bitcoin as dominance climbs. The macro tape has been quiet since the soft inflation reading on July 14th, and the next real event is the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Tactical reads: acceptance above 67,000 opens the path toward the 68,000 liquidation pool; rejection keeps this a lower-high and puts the 63,000 floor back in play as the level that decides the range.