Yesterday's breakout attempt at 65,000 rejected. 64,000 is holding as a floor into London so far, but the setup reads as a round-trip of Tuesday's short squeeze in progress. Structure is holding on the bear market relief rally from the 58,000 bounce, framed as pullback rather than reversal. Retail sales print this morning, housing starts tomorrow, and eyes turn to next Wednesday's Fed rate decision.
🔴 July 16, 8:03am ET
Yesterday's breakout attempt at 65,000 rejected. 64,000 is holding as a floor into London so far, but the setup reads as a round-trip of Tuesday's short squeeze in progress.
Price pulled back after squeezing into the supply zone above 65,000 yesterday. Structure is holding on the bear market relief rally that started at the 58,000 bounce. Pullback, not reversal, until the structure breaks.
67,000 is the VWAP anchored to the 82,000 breakdown. The next key level above is the yearly VWAP at 72,000. Two references stacked overhead as the reclaim path.
Price tried to push above last week's value area but rejected on the 65,000 breakout attempt. It's now resting at last week's point of control, with this week's value area low sitting below at 63,000. The POC is the immediate line to hold.
A large sell wall sits in the book just above 65,000. Heavy resting bid support runs down to 63,000, with over $900 million ready to absorb new seller initiative and defend the long liquidation clusters below 63,000. The book is set up to absorb, not cascade.
Narrative has shifted to the bottoming phase of the bear market, with more institutional commentary on cycle bottom predictions. The soft CPI print gives the market a tailwind that hasn't shown up in allocations yet: alts have given back their early-June outperformance versus BTC, so risk hasn't moved out the curve yet.
Retail sales print this morning, housing starts tomorrow. Then eyes turn to next Wednesday's Fed rate decision. A quiet slate before the main event.
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BTC enters Thursday with yesterday's 65,000 breakout attempt rejected and price now round-tripping Tuesday's short squeeze. 64,000 is holding as a floor into London so far. Price pulled back after squeezing into the supply zone above 65,000 yesterday. Structure is holding on the bear market relief rally that started at the 58,000 bounce, so this remains a pullback rather than a reversal until the structure breaks. Overhead, 67,000 is the VWAP anchored to the 82,000 breakdown, with the yearly VWAP at 72,000 as the next stacked reference on the reclaim path.
Positioning is set up to absorb. A large sell wall sits in the book just above 65,000. Heavy resting bid support runs down to 63,000, with over $900 million ready to absorb new seller initiative and defend the long liquidation clusters below 63,000. The book is set up to absorb, not cascade. Price tried to push above last week's value area but rejected on the 65,000 breakout attempt and is now resting at last week's point of control, with this week's value area low sitting below at 63,000; the POC is the immediate line to hold.
The macro backdrop hasn't translated into allocation yet. Narrative has shifted to the bottoming phase of the bear market, with more institutional commentary on cycle bottom predictions. The soft CPI print gives the market a tailwind that hasn't shown up in allocations: alts have given back their early-June outperformance versus BTC, so risk hasn't moved out the curve yet. Retail sales print this morning, housing starts tomorrow, and eyes turn to next Wednesday's Fed rate decision. A quiet slate before the main event. Tactical reads: a hold at 64,000 with a reclaim above 65,000 reopens the path to 67,000 and the anchored VWAP overhead; a break of last week's POC and 63,000 loses the pullback structure and opens the door to the 58,000 support test.