Asia session swept liquidity above Sunday's range, then dropped to sweep below 63,000. London and NY decide whether sellers stay in control from here. Price is chopping in a narrow range, capped by July's high at 64,700 and floored by the 30-day rolling VWAP at 62,000. Key inflation prints tomorrow and Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony, with the read on any shift in Fed policy stance both in play.
🔴 July 13, 8:10am ET
Asia session swept liquidity above Sunday's range, then dropped to sweep below 63,000. London and NY decide whether sellers stay in control from here.
Quiet weekend, price consolidating in the supply zone capped by 64,500. The binary: last week's failed breakdown was a higher low setting up continuation higher, or the first of many breakdown attempts as sellers grind through in the late innings of the bear market.
Price is chopping in a narrow range, capped by July's high at 64,700 and floored by the 30-day rolling VWAP at 62,000. Two lines defining the box until one gives.
Price is at the low end of last week's value area, which is also July's point of control. July's value area low sits below at 62,000. The stacked reference lines up with the 30-day rolling VWAP as the same reaction zone.
Quiet since Wednesday last week, with shorts opening again. The order book is stacked with bids down to 61,500 before it thins out. 61,000 is the primary liquidation magnet below.
Digital asset treasury net flows have zeroed out. Spot BTC ETF flows have been green again in July after spending May and June in the red. Still above deep value on the on-chain gauges relative to last cycle's bottom, eg. market cap vs average cost basis and realized P/L ratio. Late but not necessarily final inning of this bear market.
Key inflation prints tomorrow, and Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony. Against elevated inflation and a steady labor market, the testimony is the read on any shift in Fed policy stance.
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BTC enters Monday after Asia session swept liquidity above Sunday's range, then dropped to sweep below 63,000. London and NY decide whether sellers stay in control from here. The weekend was quiet, with price consolidating in the supply zone capped by 64,500. The binary framing last week's failed breakdown: a higher low setting up continuation higher, or the first of many breakdown attempts as sellers grind through in the late innings of the bear market. Price is chopping in a narrow range, capped by July's high at 64,700 and floored by the 30-day rolling VWAP at 62,000.
Positioning has been quiet since Wednesday last week, with shorts opening again. The order book is stacked with bids down to 61,500 before it thins out. 61,000 is the primary liquidation magnet below. Price is at the low end of last week's value area, which is also July's point of control, and July's value area low sits below at 62,000. The stacked reference lines up with the 30-day rolling VWAP as the same reaction zone.
The macro backdrop is the read this week. Digital asset treasury net flows have zeroed out, and spot BTC ETF flows have been green again in July after spending May and June in the red. Still above deep value on the on-chain gauges relative to last cycle's bottom, eg. market cap vs average cost basis and realized P/L ratio. Late but not necessarily final inning of this bear market. Key inflation prints tomorrow, and Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony. Against elevated inflation and a steady labor market, the testimony is the read on any shift in Fed policy stance. Tactical reads: a break of 62,000 confirms the two-sided sweep resolved down and opens the path to the 61,500 bid stack and 61,000 liquidation magnet; a reclaim of 63,500 with continuation through 64,500 sets up a retest of July's high at 64,700 and turns the range on its head.