Steady climb since the 61,600 bounce Wednesday. NY yesterday and Asia overnight squeezed shorts, and London threatened a breakdown but is holding session VWAP so far. Price pushed through the underside retest at 63,000 and is now up against the supply zone at 64,000, which is where the setup either extends or gets sold. Open interest is climbing with perp CVD but spot CVD hasn't confirmed, reading as a leveraged short squeeze rather than spot-bid demand.
🔴 July 10, 9:33am ET
Steady climb since the 61,600 bounce Wednesday. NY yesterday and Asia overnight squeezed shorts. London threatened a breakdown but is holding session VWAP so far.
Price pushed through the underside retest at 63,000 and is now up against the supply zone at 64,000. The reclaim opens the door, but 64,000 is where the setup either extends or gets sold.
Price is testing Monday's high as resistance, which also lines up with the upper boundary of June's value area. Two references converge at the same level.
Price is testing the upper boundary of this week's value area. This week's and last week's point of control both sit below at 63,000. The stacked POC line is the first support on a rejection here.
Open interest is climbing along with perp CVD, but spot CVD hasn't confirmed. This reads as a leveraged short squeeze rather than spot-bid demand. Price would need to break through a cluster of resting bids at 63,500 to break down.
Crypto just posted its third straight quarter of negative returns, the longest streak since 2022. On the historical 4-year cycle, this behavior maps to the low point of the last one.
Existing home sales are near a 30-year low, with over half of active listings on the market for more than 60 days. The 30-year fixed sits at 6.4% against a 4.4% average on existing mortgages, the lock-in effect quantified.
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BTC enters Friday up against the 64,000 supply zone after a steady climb from Wednesday's 61,600 bounce. NY yesterday and Asia overnight squeezed shorts, and London threatened a breakdown but is holding session VWAP so far. Price pushed through the underside retest at 63,000 and is now testing Monday's high as resistance, which also lines up with the upper boundary of June's value area. Two references converge at the same level, with 64,000 the point where the setup either extends or gets sold.
Positioning is doing the work, but not the way the tape suggests. Open interest is climbing along with perp CVD, but spot CVD hasn't confirmed. This reads as a leveraged short squeeze rather than spot-bid demand. Price would need to break through a cluster of resting bids at 63,500 to break down. Meanwhile, price is testing the upper boundary of this week's value area, with this week's and last week's point of control both sitting below at 63,000 as the stacked POC line and first support on a rejection.
The macro backdrop layers the structural read. Crypto just posted its third straight quarter of negative returns, the longest streak since 2022. On the historical 4-year cycle, this behavior maps to the low point of the last one. Existing home sales are near a 30-year low, with over half of active listings on the market for more than 60 days. The 30-year fixed sits at 6.4% against a 4.4% average on existing mortgages, the lock-in effect quantified. Tactical reads: a hold above 64,000 with follow-through fuels the squeeze into the next supply cluster overhead; a rejection at 64,000 with a break of 63,500 sends price back into the stacked POC support at 63,000, with the 61,600 bounce level as the next major shelf below.